On Sunday, Oct. 2, Colombians will vote on a plebiscite (a type of referendum) to ratify the peace agreement reached between the Colombian government and the Revolutionary Armed Forces of Colombia (FARC) guerrilla group. The peace agreement was finalized on Aug. 25, 2016, after four years of negotiations in Geneva, Switzerland, and Havana, Cuba. Since Aug. 29, there has been a bilateral ceasefire in Colombia.
The agreement ends a more than 50-year-old conflict in which over 220,000 people were killed between 1958 and 2012 and more than five million have been displaced since official counting started in 1997 — a conflict that, in a country of now more than 47 million residents, has affected each and every Colombian in some way or another: the death, kidnapping or injury of a loved one, the destruction of property, restrictions to movement throughout the territory. In all, a conflict that has left little unscathed.
The agreement, in general terms, details the need for a comprehensive rural reform, the bilateral ceasefire (which includes incorporating FARC members into civilian life), a solution to the issue of illegal drug production and trafficking, political participation of former FARC members (including involving them in the discussions in Congress leading to the implementation of these accords, where former guerilla members will not have a vote, but would have a voice), setting up a truth commission and a system of justice and reparations, and the mechanisms for implementation and verification of the agreement.
Colombia’s Constitution of 1991 states that it is the president’s duty to seek peace for its citizens. With this calling, previous presidents have led negotiations and conversations with former rebel groups. What’s more, it was the agreement reached in 1990 with rebel group Movimiento 19 de Abril, better known as M-19, and their insertion in political life that in part led to the writing of a new constitution in 1991. Former President Andrés Pastrana led a failed negotiation with the FARC during his administration, which ended in 2002; prior to that, former President César Gaviria in 1991 also led failed negotiations with a group that included the FARC and two other guerilla groups. Former President Álvaro Uribe successfully led negotiations with the Autodefensas Unidas de Colombia, a paramilitary group.
In an unprecedented decision, President Juan Manuel Santos, after securing his reelection for the presidency in 2014, promised that if his administration were to succeed in the peace negotiations with the FARC, he would bring the agreement to the people for ratification. The president elevated the request for a plebiscite to Colombia’s constitutional court, which approved the motion on July 19, 2016. A plebiscite is defined as a direct vote by qualified voters of a country or region in regard to some important public question or proposal. The question that will be presented to Colombians is a simple yes-or-no one: “Do you support the final agreement to end the conflict and build a stable and lasting peace?” (¿Apoya usted el acuerdo final para terminar el conflicto y construir una paz estable y duradera?)
In order for the plebiscite to be approved, at least 13 percent of registered voters must cast a “yes” vote — or a little over 4.5 million of the 35 million registered voters. Once this threshold is reached, the decision of whether the peace agreement is approved will depend on if more people voted “Yes” than “No.”
Given the time frame — the five weeks between the announcement of the peace agreement and the day set for the plebiscite — the Colombian National Registrar, which is in charge of electoral processes, was not able to organize new voter registrations; therefore, the people eligible to vote for the plebiscite are only those previously registered to vote in the 2014 elections. (As a side note, as with all Colombian elections that have a national outcome, the 599,026 citizens living abroad will also be able to vote).
The request for a plebiscite, while intended to demonstrate support for the agreement, has quickly turned into a match-up between current President Santos and former President Alvaro Uribe. Of the major political parties in Colombia, only Uribe’s Centro Democrático (Democratic Center) Party has expressed opposition to the agreement and is leading a campaign inviting their followers to vote “No” on the plebiscite. Important political leaders also have joined Uribe’s campaign, including former President Andrés Pastrana and former presidential candidate for the Conservative Party, Marta Lucía Ramírez.
The other political parties have offered support for the agreement and are also campaigning to urge people to vote “Yes.” These include Polo Alternativo Democratico (Alternative Democtratic Pole), the president’s Partido Social de Unidad Nacional (Social Party of National Unity), Partido Alianza Verde (Green Party), Partido Conservador Nacional (National Conservative Party), Partido Liberal (Liberal Party), Partido Opcion Ciudadana (Citizens Option Party) and Cambio Radical (Radical Change).
However, it is important to remember that Uribe continues to be very popular in Colombia, and given that only those eligible to vote in the 2014 presidential elections can vote on Oct. 2, those results should be considered. In the 2014 presidential election, Uribe’s handpicked successor, Óscar Iván Zuluaga, lost in the runoff to Santos, who obtained 50.95 percent of the vote to Zuluaga’s 45 percent, with nearly half of the Colombian electorate participating. These numbers could suggest a tighter vote than might be expected given the breakdown regarding political parties.
That said, the most recent poll shows the “Yes” vote leading by an ample margin, with 67.7 percent of respondents in support and 32.4 percent against the measure. Past polls, though, have noted that there is still a need to guarantee that the necessary number of voters will show up at the polls in order to reach the threshold of 4.5 million votes, and that voters are still unsure of the details of the agreement.
The government, its supporters and detractors have been leading education campaigns, hosting conferences and addressing the public in any way possible. There are only a few days left for Colombians to decide. Hopefully the right decision is made.
Lisa Guáqueta is the program manager of the Baker Institute Mexico Center.