China has four times the population of the United States. It has been growing at a much faster rate. Barring a protracted and sharp decline in China’s growth rate, it will sooner or later overtake the United States. Continue Reading
Kerry has declared it time for a “reality check” about the U.S. role in negotiations. But we don’t need a “reality check.” We need a thorough rethink. Should we distance ourselves from the Israeli-Palestinian dispute, hoping for the best but bracing for the worst? Or should we take the bull by the horns by presenting our own plan and using everything in our power — including direct presidential involvement — to get agreement to it? Both approaches bear risks. Neither appears likely. Continue Reading
Things are getting dicey in Eastern Ukraine. Pro-Russian protesters — strongly suspected of following Moscow’s lead — have taken to the streets, seizing some government buildings and calling for a referendum on separation from Ukraine. Eastern Ukraine is home to a large number of Russian speakers; it represented the political power base of ousted president Viktor Yanukovych. This occurs while 40,000 Russian troops remain poised across the border. There is a concern in Kyiv, Washington and European capitals — not too far-fetched, given Russia’s seizure of Crimea last month — that Moscow might invade Eastern Ukraine on the pretext of protecting Russian speakers. Continue Reading
What are the prospects for gay marriage in 2014? On balance, almost certainly positive. At the end of 2013, nearly 40 percent of U.S. citizens lived in the 18 states and District of Colombia that recognize same-sex marriage in some form. This number will almost certainly be higher at the end of 2014. Continue Reading
The civil war in Syria is a tragedy for the country’s inhabitants; it threatens the stability of Syria’s neighbors; and it has become a proxy battle in a broader struggle between Shiite Iran and the Sunni autocracies of the Persian Gulf. But it is precisely the sort of conflict — savage, factional and rooted in long-standing historical grievances — into which the United States plunges at our peril. Continue Reading
The interim agreement over Iran’s nuclear program is welcome if not earth-shattering news. The deal — struck between Tehran and the so-called P-5 — is essentially a straightforward quid pro quo: Iran agrees to limited constraints on its nuclear program in return for a partial suspension of economic sanctions … But the deal does begin addressing some of our key concerns about Iran’s nuclear program. Continue Reading
By all counts, Saudi Arabia is not amused by U.S. policy toward Syria and Iran. Should we be surprised by the rift? Not in the least. Continue Reading