Potential impact on Mexico of U.S. marijuana initiatives

In the short-term, these initiatives will probably not have a large impact, though over the long-term the effects could significantly weaken Mexico’s cartels. Colorado’s initiative will not go into effect for more than a year because the regulatory framework must be adopted by the state by July 1, 2013, and only in October 2013 can licenses to sell be distributed. On the other hand, Washington’s law goes into effect in January 2013, but it is a more geographically isolated state; it would be easier to drive from Colorado to many other states to distribute Colorado marijuana. This process, which is likely and assumed in IMCO’s report, is the market mechanism that could reduce Mexican cartel profits. Continue Reading

The kingpin strategy: A piece of a much larger puzzle

Intelligence services in Mexico and the U.S. have identified a number of important drug trafficking leaders and placed them on the “Most Wanted” list. Many of the tactical efforts of the so-called war on drugs in Mexico have focused on these leaders. The administration of President Felipe Calderón now boasts it has captured or killed almost two-thirds of these most wanted criminals. This is one of the touted successes of the drug war that some claim has cost nearly 100,000 lives in Mexico alone. The question is whether targeting drug trafficking leaders is an effective strategy in the overall drug war. Continue Reading