The Ides of March for a Chinese Politburo member

Public scandals involving Chinese Communist Party Politburo members are rare at any time, and so the recent forced replacement of Bo Xilai — party secretary of Chongqing Municipality and a contender for the top leadership within the new Politburo to be chosen at the 18th Party Congress in October this year — during the normally uneventful, over-scripted and highly formal National People’s Congress meetings in Beijing this week has raised eyebrows throughout China and all around the world. Does such a high profile ouster suggest China is gearing up for a tumultuous leadership transition in the run up to the Party Congress? The recent history of scandals involving top leaders in China suggests not. Continue Reading

A carrot-and-stick approach to North Korea

The recently announced agreement that came from a bilateral meeting in Beijing between the United States and North Korea should be greeted with cautious optimism. It could be the start of a positive relationship between the two countries and help to resolve some of the serious issues that have plagued their relationship and caused serious tensions, not only between these two countries but also in the Asian-Pacific region. Continue Reading

North Korea after Kim Jong Il

With the death of North Korean Supreme Leader Kim Jong Il, which was announced yesterday, we enter a nervous new phase in Asian diplomacy. Korea watchers have known that Kim Jong Il’s health was not well for some time. His death is something we knew was coming, but there are many possible outcomes it could produce. Thus, there are some very important potential developments that should be considered by the United States, South Korea, Japan, Russia and (not least) China.

The most important question regards succession of supreme power from Kim Jong Il to an heir or regent. Kim’s youngest son, Kim Jong Un, has been named the hereditary successor to his father, as his other brothers are viewed as marginal or irresponsible. (Some years ago, one brother was detained by Japanese authorities attempting to enter the country on a false third-country passport.) The important item to consider in this area is that we can assume that the North Koreans have been preparing for this moment, and that Kim Jong Un will be made out to be legitimate by the country’s internal propaganda organs. Continue Reading

Will gender imbalance stall China’s rise?

Conventional wisdom holds that China’s rise is fast and furious, that it is poised to soon boast the world’s largest economy. It will lead Asia’s triumphant march back to the international standing it once enjoyed during the heyday of the Silk Road. As a summer intern at the American Enterprise Institute working on population studies, I’ve learned that China can already boast about something else: It has one of the world’s highest sex ratios at birth. Continue Reading