Image courtesy of Gage Skidmore (CC-BY-SA 2.0)
President Trump’s shake-up of his foreign policy team continues. He replaced Secretary of State Rex Tillerson with CIA director Mike Pompeo last week. On Thursday, Trump announced that he replaced national security advisor H.R. McMaster with John Bolton, a former U.S. ambassador to the United Nations. Unlike Pompeo, Bolton will not require Senate confirmation. He is expected to assume his new duties in early April.
In what is by now a tradition, the change was announced by presidential tweet. McMaster’s departure comes as no surprise. Neither is his replacement by Bolton, who was considered for a senior administration position during the Trump presidential transition. (The then president-elect, according to press reports, rejected Bolton in part because of the latter’s bristly mustache.) McMaster, a career Army officer with a distinguished record, was appointed national security advisor in February 2017 following the resignation of Michael Flynn. (Flynn subsequently pleaded guilty to lying to the FBI about his contacts with the Russian government.) By all counts, McMaster, like Tillerson, never forged a good working relationship with the president, though his departure is less rancorous than that of the former secretary of state. In February, McMaster received a sharp public rebuke from the president when he declared that Russian interference in the 2016 election was incontrovertible. His days were clearly numbered.
McMaster represented a mixed bag in terms of policy. Like Tillerson, he urged caution on walking away from the Iran nuclear deal. On Afghanistan, McMaster pressed hard for a troop increase in the face of initial opposition by Trump. He also took a hardline position on North Korea, repeatedly warning that time was running out for a diplomatic solution.
McMaster’s replacement, Bolton, has staked out an even more hawkish position on North Korea, calling for a preemptive strike against its nuclear facilities and suggesting that only regime change can resolve the current crisis. In the past, he has also argued for military action against Iran. Indeed, Bolton is famous for his hawkish foreign policy positions across the board. He has a long career in government, serving in the administrations of Ronald Reagan, George H.W. Bush and George W. Bush, and as the U.S. ambassador to the UN in 2005-2006. Inside and outside government, Bolton has been a staunch advocate of an assertive U.S. foreign policy, up to and including the use of military force. He is a controversial figure in foreign policy circles, beloved by many conservatives but detested by liberals and moderates.
Bolton will assume his new position at a delicate moment. Trump is scheduled to meet North Korean leader Kim Jong-un in May. He has also set a May 12 deadline for European agreement to additional measures against Iran related to its ballistic missile program and expanded onsite international inspections of its nuclear facilities. As national security advisor, Bolton is likely to push a tough line on these and other issues.
How Bolton will fare as national security advisor is unclear. He may be a hawk on Iran and North Korea but he is also very much a hawk on Russia, where he has called for tougher sanctions. This may cause friction with the president. Then there is the question of personal chemistry. Trump is surely not an easy man to work for; the astonishing turnover in White House staff is evidence of as much. Time will tell how the president responds to Bolton’s blunt personality and strong opinions.
With the exit of Tillerson and McMaster, Trump is attempting to assemble a foreign policy team better attuned to his preferred policies but, perhaps more importantly, to his personal style. Let’s see if Bolton and Pompeo can succeed where their predecessors fell short. One thing is certain: with Pompeo at State and especially Bolton in the White House, more hawkish voices will be in the ascendant as the Trump administration moves forward with its foreign policy agenda.
Joe Barnes is the Bonner Means Baker Fellow at the Baker Institute. From 1979 to 1993, he was a career diplomat with the U.S. State Department, serving in Europe, Africa, the Middle East and South Asia.