Egypt and the United States: back to business as usual

The United States is poised to resume full military assistance to Egypt. U.S. aid was reduced (though never totally cut off) in the wake of the military coup that overthrew President Mohammed Morsi last year. Its resumption appears to signal a return to business as usual with a long-standing ally in the region. In his weekend visit to Cairo, Secretary of State John Kerry reaffirmed Washington’s “historic partnership” with Egypt.

The reasons for the shift are clear. Whatever Washington’s concerns about democracy and human rights in Egypt, our other interests trump them. Rightly or wrongly, the administration sees Egyptian military, intelligence and diplomatic cooperation as critical to sustaining peace between Israel and its Arab neighbors, combating terrorism, and, more generally, promoting regional stability. With a civil war raging in Syria and the situation going from bad to worse in Iraq, Washington is in the market for allies. At a minimum, the resumption of aid puts one foreign policy distraction on the back burner.

President Obama has been soundly — and sometimes rightly — accused of inconsistency in U.S. foreign policy. But when it comes to Egypt, he has followed in the footsteps of previous presidents, Republican and Democratic alike. The Obama administration supported former President Hosni Mubarak until the latter outlived his usefulness to us. It cooperated with the government of President Morsi, a Muslim Brotherhood member. It resisted congressional and public calls for a full break following the 2013 coup. And now it has made peace with President Abdel Fattah el-Sisi, a central figure in the overthrow of Morsi. U.S. policy towards Egypt — under Obama and his predecessors — has shown a fundamental consistency. Yes, we would like a democratic government in Cairo. But we like Egyptian support for U.S. policies in the Middle East more.

Whether Sisi will preside over the evolution of a robust Egyptian democracy or settle into the tried-and-tested role of military strongman is anybody’s guess. As my colleague, Ben Stevenson, pointed out in a post last week, the signs are not good.

We will of course continue to badger the Egyptian government about its human rights practices; indeed, Kerry did so while he was in Cairo. And the Egyptian government, in turn, will no doubt give us assurances that it is, in fact, committed to a transition to a more fully democratic system. Meanwhile, the flow of aid will continue. And President Sisi will know that, at least for the time being, we need him more than he needs us.