There’s a new Pew Research poll out on Middle Eastern attitudes towards the crisis in Syria. It makes for sobering reading. The reason: A strong majority oppose increasing Western aid to Syrian rebels.
The poll, conducted during April and May in a number of Arab countries, Israel, the West Bank and the Gaza Strip, shows a strong desire for Syrian President Bashar Al-Assad to step down. (The one unsurprising exception is the Shia of Lebanon, who have long seen the current Syrian regime as their protector and want Assad to stay.) The survey also shows substantial public concern that extremist elements will prevail in the Syrian civil war. Nonetheless, opposition to the West arming Syrian insurgents is high and growing:
Note that the poll also shows opposition to Arab support for the Syrian rebels, though by generally lower margins. The bottom line: For all their detestation of Assad and fear of an extremist takeover in Syria, most Arabs (and surprisingly high numbers of Israeli Jews) oppose any foreign role in arming Syrian insurgents.
The Pew survey is incomplete. It does not include Syria itself, the Gulf Arab states or Iran. And, by definition, it measures public opinion, not the views of elite decision-makers.
Daniel Larison of The American Conservative and Bruce Stokes at Foreign Policy have thought-provoking takes on the poll results. My own view: Foreign public opinion cannot, of course, be the sole determinant of U.S. policy, which must rest, ultimately, on an assessment of our national interest. But regional public opinion should surely be a factor in our calculus. At a minimum, the survey should put to rest any idea that there is a general public clamor in the Middle East for greater U.S. intervention in Syria. If we go ahead and up the ante in Syria, we should expect opposition even among those in the region who desire Assad to depart. We would no doubt do so in the firm belief — an abiding fantasy of U.S. policy in the Middle East — that we know what is “good for Arabs.” It will be important for us to remember that they, well, disagree.
Joe Barnes is the Baker Institute’s Bonner Means Baker Fellow. From 1979 to 1993, he was a career diplomat with the U.S. Department of State, serving in Europe, Africa, the Middle East and South Asia.