As I sit in my hotel, the hazy Agra winter air obscures the view of the Taj Mahal, India’s most iconic symbol. The image of the Taj makes a good metaphor for India’s upcoming national elections, which will determine who wins the office of prime minister — the pinnacle of Indian political power. The outcome of the election is completely uncertain, with nearly 10 candidates that have a decent chance (greater than 5 percent probability, in my estimation) of becoming the next prime minister.
This suspenseful mix of uncertainty and consequence has the entire country buzzing — and the entire political class gaming — with permutations of parties that could form the next government. Having just made a swing through Delhi to capture the pulse, I want to provide a snapshot of the political horizon as it stands today, days before the Election Commission officially declares the election will take place this May.
Rahul Gandhi, leader of the Indian Congress Party campaign
Perhaps ironically, the only candidate who can be ruled out categorically is Rahul Gandhi, great-grandson of Jawaharlal Nehru and son of current Congress Party chairperson Sonia Gandhi. The Congress has failed to demonstrate initiative during its 10 years in office, including by failing to enforce probity among its ministers and coalition members. Gandhi’s obvious lack of enthusiasm for the job has not helped to inspire excitement about his candidacy.
Even senior Congress Party officials privately admit to expecting a serious loss for their party. Instead, the party leadership has one serious aim for this election: prevent Narendra Modi from becoming prime minister.
Modi is the highly controversial chief minister (equivalent to a U.S. state governor) of Gujarat. He presided over one of the best-performing state economies in India, but also horribly bloody anti-Muslim riots. Representing the Hindu-nationalist Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP), many feel he would prove dangerously divisive in an India that often struggles to hang together.
Narendra Modi (middle of the top row, with hand raised), the prime minister candidate for the BJP
Modi has the best chance at being the next prime minister. The BJP, as the only other truly national major party, is universally expected to win the most seats in the elections. However, since it is unlikely that the BJP will win a majority, they will have to cobble together a coalition of allies from smaller parties.
The necessity of a coalition is the wedge that Congress elites hope will prevent Modi from becoming prime minister — many potential BJP allies are opposed to Modi. The more allies the BJP requires for a majority coalition, the more likely it is that the BJP will have to dump Modi and find an alternative prime minister. This opens the door for 86-year-old L.K. Advani, who was the BJP candidate for prime minister in the last election, or Rajnath Singh, the current party president.
The small parties that help form coalitions in India deserve further explanation. Parties whose agenda and appeal only extend to a limited region or caste increasingly occupy India’s political offices. Non-national parties rarely took more than 10 percent of parliamentary seats prior to 1990. Since then, they have climbed steadily, winning 39 percent of seats in the 2009 election. With neither major party appearing invincible, these parties may make gains sufficient enough that they could lead a government coalition.
The most likely configuration is a dramatically weakened Congress Party lending outside support to a coalition of its small-party allies. The state-level government in Delhi was formed this way in November after Congress was crushed. The BJP won the largest share of seats, but not enough to form a government. There are many regional party leaders with ambitions of becoming the next prime minister. Jayalalithaa, the former film actress who dominates Tamil Nadu politics, and Mamata Banerjee, the unpredictable populist from Bengal, have both supported the current Congress-led coalition from the outside.
Finally, the dark horse party that has come out of nowhere is the Aam Admi Party (AAP), the Common Man Party. Springing out of the anti-corruption protests of 2011, Arvind Kejriwal led this new party to a shockingly strong showing in the fall state-level elections in Delhi. He briefly became chief minister with Congress backing, generating a spotlight and tremendous momentum.
The AAP’s one advantage over regional parties is that it has a truly national agenda and plans to contest seats across the country. Depending on the election results, it could claim to represent the entire country and therefore prove a more resilient coalition leader.
After years of lackadaisical leadership, India’s national momentum is waning, at least as measured by its economy, geopolitical weight and national optimism. It needs a strong new government to promote a clear vision to regain its upward trajectory. Unfortunately, the most likely outcome is a weak coalition government, bound by the necessities of too many allies to please.
Russell A. Green, Ph.D., is the Will Clayton Fellow in International Economics at Rice University’s Baker Institute and a former U.S. financial attaché to India.