Egypt today stands at a critical juncture as violence escalates between supporters of the ousted Muslim Brotherhood and the security services. Reports that former President Hosni Mubarak may soon be released from imprisonment demonstrate how the “Arab Spring” has come full circle in the Arab world’s most populous state. Just as the uprising that ousted Mubarak from power galvanized demonstrators across the region, so the reinstatement of military rule sends a clear message about the embedded power of counter-revolutionary forces to resist the pressures that swept the region in 2011. Caught in the middle are the “old guard” of powerbrokers in the United States and the European Union, unsure of how to respond even as newer actors seize the initiative to reshape regional politics.
However much many people might dislike the Muslim Brotherhood and criticize its flawed exercise in misgoverning Egypt and attempting to consolidate power and authority, they had a democratic mandate as a result of parliamentary and presidential election victories and two referenda on constitutional change. To rip away an elected government with military power after one year in office has consequences which are hard to contain. Egypt is now more divided than ever as a society, the military are as entrenched as they ever were, and the economy is spiraling out of control. This is incredibly dangerous as evidenced in the upsurge in attacks by radical Islamist militants in the strategically-sensitive Sinai Peninsula buffering Egypt and Israel. A fragmented, divided society and a declining economy are a recipe for deep political turmoil and protracted levels of inter-communal violence.
The wider geopolitical picture in the region appears one of deep division and antagonism. The Gulf forces in support of the status quo ante are holding, but the splits and movements of people in many other Middle Eastern countries are producing a most uncertain future. Syria is in the direst condition as the civil war continues to rage with no clear resolution or political settlement in sight. Its conflict has ramified across the region inflaming the Kurds and greatly increasing sectarian violence in Iraq. Libya is at risk of being torn apart by militia groups competing for localized power if it is not there already. Tunisia is less free than it was and faces the possibility of even greater political violence in the wake of the assassination of a second senior liberal opposition figure in six months. Meanwhile, Israel sits in an ever more uncertain environment where all the old geo-political rules are weaker in their application, if they still apply at all.
As for the United States and the European Union, both have been behind the curve from the very beginning. After backing the post-colonial authoritarian leaders for decades in the name of stability, they belatedly switched sides with the Arab Spring, and now are in an increasingly incoherent position which wins few friends or admirers within the region. Having intervened too hastily in Libya and too slowly in Syria and with the shadow of Iraq still looming large, confidence in their capacity to adapt to or even comprehend the rapidly-changing regional dynamics is surely at an all-time low in the Middle East.
The resulting inertia contrasts sharply with the speedy offers of US$ 12 billion in material aid and financial assistance from the Gulf states. These offer the military regime in Cairo viable alternatives without any of the preconditions, policy proscriptions or oversight associated with multilateral, Western-led funding agencies. The ebbing of “Western” political and economic influence places great strain on the military and security dimensions of relationships that have for so long underpinned the structure and balance of regional power. Hard choices lie ahead in Washington, D.C., and other capitals about the prioritization of interests in a Middle East once again torn between seemingly competing notions of democracy and stability.
Kristian Coates Ulrichsen, Ph.D., is the Baker Institute fellow for Kuwait. His research examines the changing position of Persian Gulf states in the global order, as well as the emergence of longer-term, nonmilitary challenges to regional security. He is also a visiting fellow at the LSE Middle East Centre and an associate fellow at Chatham House in the United Kingdom. Follow him on Twitter at @Dr_Ulrichsen.