With Comptroller Susan Combs’ recent announcement that she will not run for re-election, the Texas Republican Party faces the undesirable prospect of having its slate of candidates for statewide executive offices being entirely male in 2014. This would represent the first time since 1986 that the party failed to run at least one female candidate for the statewide “plural” executive posts of governor, lieutenant governor, attorney general, comptroller of public accounts, commissioner of agriculture, commissioner of the general land office and state treasurer (abolished in 1996).
The Texas Republican Party often is criticized by many pundits and Democrats for supporting what its detractors consider to be “anti-women” policies. In addition, public opinion polls show that in Texas, as in the rest of the country, women are on average increasingly more likely to vote for Democratic candidates then men. For example, in the 2010 gubernatorial election, Gov. Rick Perry defeated his Democratic challenger, Bill White, by 17 points among men, but by only 8 points among women.
There is little doubt that in 2014 winning the Republican primary for a statewide office will, regardless of who the victorious candidate is, once again be tantamount to winning the general election. However, looking down the road, it stands to reason that the presence of an entirely male executive branch during the 2015-19 period would be detrimental to the Texas Republican Party’s broader image and long-term goals of retaining its majority status in Texas.
At present, only one Republican woman, former Wharton County GOP chair and 2010 gubernatorial candidate Debra Medina, is actively seeking a statewide executive office (comptroller). Within the context of a fragmented Republican field, Medina has a not unrealistic chance of reaching the runoff (assuming she can mobilize the same type of support as in her 2010 bid). However, the odds are heavily stacked against her being successful in a hypothetical second round against one of the more established conservative candidates running or seriously considering a bid for the post of comptroller (i.e., State Sens. Glenn Hegar and Tommy Williams and State Rep. Harvey Hilderbran).
At this point, the most likely scenario for a Texas Republican woman being on the statewide slate involves Attorney General Greg Abbott vacating his current post to run for governor or, less likely, for lieutenant governor — the latter in the event Gov. Perry decides to seek re-election. The Republican Party is fortunate to have within its ranks a number of talented and highly qualified women who would be excellent candidates for the position of attorney general, including, but not limited to, Bexar County District Attorney Susan Reed, State Reps. Stefani Carter and Sarah Davis, Railroad Commissioner Christi Craddick, and Supreme Court Justices Eva Guzman and Debra Lehrmann.
Of course, it remains to be seen if any of these individuals are willing to consider running, and if so, under what conditions (e.g., assurances they would not have to face a well-financed establishment-backed rival in the primary, such as State Rep. Dan Branch or Railroad Commissioner Barry Smitherman). What is clear is that absent some proactive behavior by Republican elites during the remainder of 2013, come January 2015, Texas is very likely to find itself with an executive branch devoid of women.
Mark P. Jones is the Baker Institute’s fellow in political science as well as the Joseph D. Jamail Chair in Latin American Studies and the chair of the Department of Political Science at Rice University.