Filing for the SD-6 special election closed on December 27, with a total of eight candidates vying to replace Sen. Mario Gallegos, who was posthumously elected on November 6 after having passed away on October 16: Carol Alvarado (Democrat), R.W. Bray (Republican), Susan Delgado (Democrat), Sylvia Garcia (Democrat), Joaquin Martinez (Democrat), Dorothy Olmos (Republican), Rodolfo “Rudy” Reyes (independent), and Maria Selva (Green). With the field now set, and a little more than three weeks remaining before the January 26 special election (less than a week before early voting begins on January 9), it is a good time to reflect on the race to choose Gallegos’ successor, a person who arguably, by virtue of their new position, will become the Houston area’s most powerful Hispanic Democrat.
One. The race features two seasoned politicians (Alvarado and Garcia) who possess a high level of name recognition, well-provisioned campaign war chests, access to deep-pocketed donors and the active support of prominent Houston area political leaders and interest groups. The remaining six candidates have little to no prior experience in public office, minimal name recognition, scant support from salient political actors, and by all accounts negligible campaign funds (though we will not have a full picture of the respective candidates’ finances until January 15 [through December 31] and January 18 [through January 16]).
Bray, Delgado, Martinez, Olmos, Reyes and Selva are further disadvantaged by the extremely limited media coverage of the race to date. Given their limited campaign funds and resulting inability to air television ads or conduct large-scale direct-mail campaigns, these candidates desperately need earned (free) coverage in the local print, radio and television media in order to reach potential voters.
Two. The presence of two experienced and well-funded candidates combined with the existence of the six other candidates, several of whom are vigorously campaigning, guarantees the race will not be decided in the first round on January 26. Instead, the victor will be determined in a runoff to be held on a Tuesday or Saturday at some point between February 23 and March 9, with the scheduling of the exact date in the hands of Gov. Rick Perry.
Three. The runoff almost certainly will feature a rematch between Alvarado and Garcia. While R.W. Bray did garner 29 percent of the vote as the Republican standard bearer in SD-6 this past fall, most of these November GOP voters will not be returning to the polls in January, and many of those who will cast a ballot this month will vote instead for fellow Republican Olmos or for their preferred candidate among the two front-runners.
Four. While the next SD-6 senator will not be determined on January 26, the results of that day’s vote could have a major impact on the respective campaigns’ ability to garner donations during the run-up to the second round in late February/early March. If either Alvarado or Garcia is able to finish first on January 26 with a substantial gap between her vote share and that of her rival, then that will have a powerful effect on each candidate’s respective fundraising during the approximately 30-day sprint to the runoff.
If this first round “gap” scenario occurred, the first place candidate could expect existing donors to “double down” and make additional contributions and individuals and groups who had been sitting on the fence to contribute with the goal of currying favor with the prospective future senator. At the same time, the second place candidate would most likely watch the checkbooks of many of her current donors close (this would especially be the case for Garcia, since if Alvarado loses she will still be a state representative and therefore not someone her donors would want to alienate), while at the same time receiving very few first-time donations for the runoff campaign.
Five. Among Texas’ 31 state senate districts, SD-6 ranks last in its number of registered voters (284,000) and 2012 voter turnout (138,000). While predicting participation in special elections is inherently difficult, I would hazard that only somewhere between 25,000-30,000 voters will cast a ballot in the first round, that is, likely fewer than 1 in 10 registered voters and 1 in 25 district residents. The actual level of voter participation will depend heavily on the size and efficacy of the eight campaigns’ get out the vote (GOTV) efforts, with this component of the respective campaigns being pivotal to their success in this low turnout event.
Six. SD-6’s new senator will be sworn in during the latter half of March. The district’s approximately 813,000 residents will therefore be without representation in the Texas Senate for approximately half of the state’s biennial regular legislation session, which runs from January 8 to May 27. The new senator also is certain to arrive in Austin after the final day for senators to introduce most bills and resolutions during the session.
This extended delay is due almost entirely to Gov. Perry’s decision to schedule the first round at just about the latest date permitted by law. Had Perry wished to expedite the process, as he did for safe Republican House seats in 2006 (when Rep. Glenda Dawson of Pearland was, like Gallegos, elected posthumously) and in 2010 (when Rep. Edmund Kuempel of Seguin died two days after being elected), SD-6’s newest senator could have been, even in the event of a runoff, occupying her/his seat in the Capitol’s east wing before the end of January. In 2006 and 2010 the first rounds were held on December 19 and 14 respectively, more than a month earlier than SD-6’s January 26 date.
Mark P. Jones is the Baker Institute’s fellow in political science as well as the Joseph D. Jamail Chair in Latin American Studies and chair of the Department of Political Science at Rice University.