What does the future hold for Israelis and Palestinians?

Retired Israeli General Danny Rothschild, director of the Institute for Policy and Strategy at the Interdisciplinary Center Herzliya, spoke at the Baker Institute this week on contemporary issues in the broader Middle East.

He told the audience that here are those who “believe if only we’ll solve the Israeli-Palestinian issue, then the whole Middle East will be heaven and Earth and all the problems are going to be solved. I’m afraid that’s not the situation.”

Islamic movements with zero tolerance for secular governments are growing, fueled by economic disparities and growing populations. The West’s role is also changing, as policymakers in the United States and Europe focus on domestic issues, rather than foreign policy.

“The more the U.S. and Europe take a back seat in the Middle East, Iran is taking the front seat,” he said.

A third factor, and the most important, he says is the Israeli-Palestinian issue. Noting the possibility that the Palestinians would seek membership status at the UN this week, he said that regardless of the outcome, there is nothing that can replace the importance of peace negotiations and political decisions.

A three-decade veteran of the Israel Defense Forces (IDF), Rothschild served in southern Lebanon and, during the first Gulf War, was responsible for political and military strategy and analysis. In 1991, he was appointed coordinator of government activities in the territories, overseeing 21,000 civilians and military staff.

Rothschild also played a key role in the negotiation processes that led to the peace agreements with Jordan and with the Palestinians, and was part of Israel’s delegation to peace talks with the Jordanians and with the Palestinians in Madrid and in Washington D.C.

View Rothschild’s entire Sept. 19, 2011, lecture, “New realities in the broader Middle East.”