Last night the news broke on a possible threat to New York and/or Washington involving vehicle bombs.
Understanding the significance of the threat is partly dependent on understanding the terminology. The alert cited “specific, credible, but unconfirmed“ information. Credible information was developed overseas, however independent corroborations of the information has not been possible. The credibility of the source is an assessment made by the intelligence community, and it involves not only the reliability of the source, but the likelihood the source would have been given or obtained accurate information.
Next, the specificity of the information is analyzed — does it make sense? Are there enough clues to develop further information on the threat? In this case, there is some detail — a vehicle bomb. Other details not made public will then be checked in the vetting process.
Another point of consideration is prior indications of targeting. In this case, there were references to the desirability of a 911 attack seized from the Bin Laden compound in Abbottabad. Last year, Faisal Shahzad attempted to detonate a car bomb in Times Square. In 2009, Najibullah Zazi was believed to be planning an attack around 911 anniversary at the time of his arrest. While he and his colleagues have been apprehended, the chemicals he collected are not believed to have been recovered.
Al Qaeda is known to have engaged in more than one attempt on the same target, and this is no exception. Recall the 1993 World Trade Center attack, which preceded the 911 attacks. Another example might be the attempted Jan. 2000 attack against the USS The Sullivans in Yemen, and the successful attack on the USS Cole shortly thereafter.
Again, this is a good time to emphasize that citizens going about their daily lives are an important part of the security of the community.
If you see something, say something.
Joan Neuhaus Schaan is the fellow in homeland security and terrorism at the Baker Institute, coordinator of the Texas Security Forum, and serves on the advisory board of the Transborder International Police Association. She has served as the executive director of the Houston-Harris County Regional Homeland Security Advisory Council and on the board of Crime Stoppers of Houston, Inc.