Rex Tillerson’s short, unhappy tenure as secretary of state is over. Tillerson, confirmed by the Senate in February 2017, lasted just 13 months in office. President Donald Trump has announced that he will nominate CIA director Mike Pompeo to replace Tillerson. The president announced the changes — by tweet, of course — on Tuesday morning. Speaking briefly to the press, the president stressed differences on U.S. policy toward Iran as one of the reasons for Tillerson’s dismissal. The outgoing secretary of state has been a staunch supporter of maintaining the Obama-era nuclear deal with Tehran.
Tillerson’s time at Foggy Bottom was, to put it charitably, troubled. He was slow to fill key senior positions and fitful in tapping into the expertise of State Department professionals. By all counts, morale plummeted during his year as secretary of state. Moreover, Tillerson was committed to drastic proposed cuts in the State Department’s manpower and budget. Many observers across the political spectrum have excoriated him for weakening U.S. diplomacy for years, and perhaps decades, to come.
It was not, however, Tillerson’s management style that led to his dismissal. Whatever the proximate cause for his exit, Tillerson never enjoyed an effective working relationship with the president he served. Indeed, stories that he would be replaced by Pompeo circulated as early as last November. Tillerson found himself publicly undercut by the president on issues as varied as the U.S. approach to the dispute among the countries of the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) and negotiations with North Korea. In the Middle East, he saw Jared Kushner, the president’s son-in-law, taking the diplomatic lead in U.S.-Saudi relations and the Arab-Israeli peace process. While Trump’s abrupt announcement may have come as a surprise, Tillerson’s departure has been months in the making.
Tillerson has, on balance, played a moderating role in the Trump administration’s foreign policy. He promoted an even-handed approach to the GCC dispute, firmly supported U.S. security guarantees to NATO members, encouraged negotiations with North Korea and, perhaps most importantly, urged the president to keep the Iran nuclear deal in place. Tillerson was also, at times, harshly critical of Russia.
His successor, Mike Pompeo, was a conservative Republican congressman from Kansas prior to becoming head of the CIA in January 2017. Pompeo is considered a staunch Trump loyalist and enjoys a good relationship with the president, who has declared that he and his nominee for secretary of state are “on the same wavelength.” Given his three terms on Capitol Hill, Pompeo is also more of a Washington insider than Tillerson, who was CEO of ExxonMobil before becoming secretary of state. All this suggests that Pompeo may be able to put his stamp on U.S. foreign policy in a way his predecessor never did.
One area where Pompeo may do so is in U.S.-Iranian relations, as he — like President Trump — is a fierce critic of Barack Obama’s nuclear deal. Pompeo is likely to reinforce the president’s hawkish instincts, raising the likelihood that Trump will reimpose the sanctions waived under the nuclear agreement.
There is already a flurry of instant assessments of Rex Tillerson’s performance as secretary of state; we live, after all, in an impatient era of “hot takes.” Here is mine: In many ways, Tillerson faced an uphill battle from the beginning. He struggled with a chaotic White House and a dysfunctional policymaking system. Most importantly of all, he never earned the trust of a president who prizes personal loyalty and is quick to criticize — and, indeed, humiliate — subordinates in public. Rex Tillerson may not have played his cards particularly well, but he was probably dealt a losing hand to begin with.
Joe Barnes is the Bonner Means Baker Fellow at the Baker Institute. From 1979 to 1993, he was a career diplomat with the U.S. State Department, serving in Europe, Africa, the Middle East and South Asia.