Fabricio Alvarado, left, pictured with Carlos Alvarado. Image courtesy of Jeffrey Zamora
Costa Ricans head to the polls on Sunday (April 1) for a tight run-off election between an Evangelical pastor and a socialist.
The country’s February 4 election was supposed to be about the economy, corruption and crime. But it was unexpectedly upended by the subject of same-sex marriage, and the candidates found themselves in a run-off.
A single event — an advisory opinion by the Inter-American Court of Human Rights (ICHR) declaring that Costa Rica (and other member states) should recognize marriage equality — led to the surprise showing by Fabricio Alvarado of the conservative Christian National Restoration Party (PRN). Fabricio Alvarado skyrocketed in the polls following the January 9 ICHR ruling when he vehemently opposed legalizing same-sex marriage and declared that, if elected, he would not uphold the court’s ruling.
Throughout the campaign Fabricio Alvarado, a journalist and evangelical pastor, had been polling in sixth or seventh place out of the thirteen candidates, with no more than 3 percent of the vote. After the ICHR ruling, his party’s socially conservative agenda gained momentum; contrary to all forecasts he led the first round with 24.91 percent of the vote. Since no candidate reached the 40 percent share required to avoid a runoff, Fabricio Alvarado’s opponent on April 1 will be Carlos Alvarado (no relation) of the leftist Citizen’s Action Party (PAC), which has been in power since 2014. Carlos Alvarado’s performance was also surprising, given his climb in the polls from no more than 4 percent of the vote to 21.66 percent, securing the second place outperforming the candidate from the Partido Liberación Nacional (PLN) – the stronger of the two traditional political parties.
As the ruling party candidate, Carlos Alvarado faces an uphill battle. Last September, the “cementazo” corruption scandal exposed a network of high profile politicians, businessmen and members of the judiciary branch who are under investigation. The scandal, which involves members of the three branches of government, has been a major blow to President Luis Guillermo Solís administration whose party — the PAC — was the first to break Costa Rica’s long tradition of a two-party system. Solís, who ran on an anti-corruption platform and as an anti-establishment candidate, has disappointed many voters who abandoned Costa Rica’s traditional political parties to vote for him.
In addition, Carlos Alvarado is also burdened by the PAC’s underperformance, especially regarding the alarming fiscal deficit. The government has been criticized for not taking the necessary steps to reduce spending. The growing fiscal deficit closed at 6.2 percent of GDP last December, up from 5.3 percent the year before. Carlos Alvarado is perceived by many as “more of the same.”
Fabricio Alvarado’s rise surely reflects the social conservatism of many Costa Ricans. But it is also a signal of the rising power of Evangelicals in Costa Rica and, indeed, Latin America.
Evangelicals are now close to 20 percent of the population in Latin America. Although Catholics and Evangelicals are on the same side on several social issues such as abortion, homosexual behavior, divorce and in-vitro fertilization, Evangelicals hold stronger views on how morally wrong these practices are. In fact, in Costa Rica half of the Catholic-to-Evangelical converts cited their desire for a stronger emphasis on morality as one of the main reasons for switching. Evangelicals are more observant of their faith and more obedient of their pastors. These characteristics, along with the organizational capacity of the Evangelical church across the country, make it a highly influential and powerful force. Their widespread network of churches and pastors throughout the country help them reach all socio-economic backgrounds.
The rising influence of the Evangelical bloc in Costa Rica’s Legislative Assembly is remarkable. The first Evangelical party to participate in presidential and congressional elections was the Christian National Alliance (ANC) in 1986 and obtained a meager 0.38 percent of the vote. Other Evangelical parties entered politics; in the 1998 election, a member of one of these parties received enough votes to join the 57-member Legislative Assembly. In the 2014 elections, the Evangelical parties won 4 deputies and reached 2.2 percent of the vote. In this year’s election (voting for the Legislative Assembly was also held on February 4) the Evangelicals won 14 legislators (making them the second leading faction in the Assembly) and reached 22.5 percent of the vote. In a four-year period, they had a tenfold increase going from 2.2 percent to 22.5 percent of the vote, resulting in raising their participation from 4 to 14 legislators, half of whom are pastors.
Other than his social conservatism, Fabricio Alvarado is in many ways an unknown quantity. His party nominated a presidential candidate for the first time in the 2012 elections. He has little political and governmental experience. While the basis of his support is found among religious – and especially Evangelical — Christians, elements of Costa Rica’s business and political elites are also supporting him. They oppose the economic policies of the PAC and see Fabricio Alvarado as a vehicle to advance their pro-business policies.
The people of Costa Rica, therefore, face a dilemma on April 1. On the one hand, in Carlos they have a candidate whose party has failed to deliver the change it promised in the last election. On the other, they have Fabricio, who appeals to their conservative instincts but seems unconcerned about Costa Rica’s reputation for tolerance, respect for all human rights, and regard for international institutions
My own views should be clear. I support marriage equality as a fundamental human right and believe that Costa Rica should follow the advisory opinion of the ICHR. While respectful of religious opinion, we should also be wary of those who seek to use political power to impose their religious views.
But the choice in the presidential runoff transcends the narrow issue of same-sex marriage. Costa Rica enjoys an enviable reputation for its commitment to liberal democratic norms. The election of Fabricio – given his fierce focus on social conservatism – would call this into doubt.
Fabricio may be no Donald Trump. By all appearances, he is an appealing individual of authentic religious belief. But his election would surely create uncertainties about Costa Rica’s future that citizens of all political persuasions should bear in mind as April 1 approaches. In 2016, Americans, too, voted for an unknown quantity over an establishment candidate. Is Costa Rica willing to take the same risk in 2018?
Erika de la Garza is the program director of the Latin America Initiative at the Baker Institute. A Costa Rican national, her chief areas of interest include U.S.-Latin America relations; emerging leadership; coalition building between public, private and civil society actors; and trade and business development in Latin America.