The numbers
On Sunday, June 5, voters in 12 out of 32 states in Mexico went to the polls to elect governors, mayors and local legislators. In addition, citizens in Baja California elected mayors and state legislators, and Mexico City residents came out to elect the delegation that will draft the city’s new constitution in the next months. The results surprised many. The National Action Party (PAN), which lost the presidential election in 2012 and was considered to be in disarray, won seven governorships (Aguascalientes, Chihuahua, Durango, Puebla, Quintana Roo, Tamaulipas and Veracruz); hundreds of city mayoral seats; and will control many state legislatures. The biggest loser was President Enrique Peña’s political party (the Institutional Revolutionary Party or PRI), which only managed to hang on to five governorships and scored low in Baja California and Mexico City. Leftist parties finished with a mixed record.
This election was important because it is largely seen as a prelude to Mexico’s 2018 presidential election. After June 5, the outcome of the presidential election is now less certain. This inconclusiveness may actually be good for Mexico because a solid democracy is precisely that: clear rules and uncertain outcomes.
A resurgent PAN
The PAN, a pioneer party in Mexico’s democratization movement in the 1980s and 1990s, lost the presidential election in 2012 and has been losing important governorships over the years. Many even thought that the party was in a permanent crisis and would not recover. The June 5 elections showed a resurgent PAN, which will now govern nearly half of the Mexican population at the local level. The PAN has demonstrated that it is the only other political party with a national presence and is currently well positioned for the 2018 presidential elections. In that sense, the party will continue to play an important role in Mexico’s road to democratic consolidation.
The limits of the PRI’s electoral strategy
Over the last 12 years, the PRI, which ruled Mexico for most of the 20th century, managed a formidable comeback, recovering lost ground in state after state and ultimately winning the presidency in 2012. However, the party never truly democratized. It picked highly corrupt governors and employed an electoral strategy largely based on low voter turnout, fragmentation of the opposition vote and the creation and maintenance of a few smaller parties, with which it formed coalitions in many elections. This strategy worked for a few years. In 2015, the PRI recovered political ground and managed to capture 50 percent of the lower house in Congress in coalition with the Green Party and the New Alliance Party (PANAL). That strategy, however, seemed to reach its limit on June 5. Smaller parties were an attractive alternative and the turnout increased considerably, reaching over 50 percent in nearly every single race in 2016. In previous local elections, turnout was as low as 26 percent. The PRI will have to look for a different strategy, which might involve implementing major internal reforms to become a truly democratic party.
A left-wing in disarray
The PRI and the PAN have been almost indistinguishable on public policy issues at the national level. Both took a right turn in national political debates, including forming a Pact for Mexico, which is responsible for many of the structural reforms passed between 2013 and 2015. The left came out of the June 5 election further divided. The more moderate left of the Democratic Revolutionary Party (PRD) held only in coalition with the PAN, although it managed a second place finish in Mexico City. The National Regeneration Movement (MORENA), led by the controversial two-time presidential candidate Andrés Manuel López Obrador, did not do well beyond Mexico City and Veracruz, where it finished in first and third place, respectively. Elsewhere, it hardly managed more than 10 percent of the vote and much less in most races. The Workers’ Party (PT) results were not significant, but it did place in coalition with the PRI— a disadvantageous position this year.
Mexico needs a stronger left, but there is no consensus on the kind of left the country should have. A weak left will continue to deny many Mexicans a stronger voice on behalf of workers. It would also inhibit more nationalistic economic policies that could coherently and successfully counter the much stronger right.
A referendum on President Enrique Peña and the 2018 presidential election
This election can also be read as a referendum on President Peña’s performance, including his public policy programs. Peña came into office with enormous expectations and managed a multi-party coalition to push through reforms on energy, education and telecommunications, among others. But these reforms, contrary to his own assertions, are not the kind of reforms that, though needed, will pay off soon for everyday workers. Second, he has refused to take responsibility for the numerous corruption scandals surrounding him, his team and his party’s governors. He has also dismissed increasing concerns about Mexico’s public safety and security issues, stating that he did not understand why people were in such a “bad mood.” The results of the 2016 elections can thus be interpreted as a referendum on his presidency, his party and his public policy programs.
The 2018 elections
The June 5 election throws the 2018 presidential elections into question. Both the PRI and the PAN are now well positioned to win that important race, as is the political left, if it manages to come together and harness the growing skepticism regarding the structural reforms that has Peña pushed so hard to enact. More importantly, the Mexican electorate demonstrated a surprising ability to use elections to punish and reward politicians and political parties. It showed a sophistication and a remarkable ability to split the vote according to its judgment of performance. That is the most important wild card going into the 2018 federal elections. Perhaps Mexico is, after a tortuous transition, becoming a true democracy.
Tony Payan, Ph.D., is the Françoise and Edward Djerejian Fellow for Mexico Studies and director of the Mexico Center at Rice University’s Baker Institute.