The Mexican government appears to have finally generated the political will that it needs to bring the drug trafficking reign of Joaquin Guzman Loera, otherwise known as “El Chapo Guzman,” to an end. However, the effort to re-capture Guzman comes less as a result of a Mexican court order but rather more because of the humiliation and embarrassment the government has suffered before the world court of opinion for helping him escape from federal custody a second time. Whatever semblance Mexico may have to a society governed by the precepts of rule of law, Chapo Guzman’s escape makes a mockery of the national justice system. The corruption that allowed for Chapo to again walk free is another devastatingly sad example of a public safety system that is controlled by organized crime and that continues to falter and ruin under the Enrique Peña Nieto administration.
To atone for this very public show of corruption, in the past few weeks combined government forces have begun an all-out search for Guzman in his home state of Sinaloa where some have described military operations as a “scorched earth” campaign that has left many residents fleeing their homes for fear of being killed by crossfire. To be sure, the massive force that has been deployed to re-capture Chapo makes it more likely than not that he will be killed when Mexican forces confront him again. Concurrent with that likelihood is the premise that Chapo would rather die than be extradited and subjected to an American judicial system where he will be unable to manage his criminal enterprise or enjoy his riches, in contrast to what has amounted to his being on house-arrest in Mexican jails. But there is much more than public humiliation at stake. Capturing or killing Chapo is more about the needs of the Mexican people than it is about popular opinion. It is about public demands that the government do a better job of protecting and defending civil society. Various levels of the Mexican government have yet to show that they are either capable or willing to provide protection to its citizens and often collaborate with organized crime, thereby becoming co-conspirators that are part of the problem and not the solution.
As a result, the government has become willfully blind and permissive of criminal activity and in many cases has become a partner to crime itself. This subjugation to criminality, turned partnership, is in effect the institutional acquiescence of a national government that is allowing or permitting nongovernmental criminal entities to rule large segments of territory and to exert illegitimate social control from both a political and public safety standpoint.
By allowing criminals to buy their freedom, or to disappear people at will — such as the case of the 43 missing students from Iguala, Guerrero on Sept. 26, 2014 in which corrupt police were involved — Mexico will not be able to attract multi-national investment in various growth sectors, including manufacturing or petroleum exploration, if there are no effective rule of law programs and institutions to support and protect these enterprises, neither outside the gates of their plants, nor in criminal or civil courts where they would seek legal remedies.
The people of Mexico can hardly tolerate continuing government inefficacy and growing acquiesance to criminal groups. A movement entitled “#YoSoyAutoDefensas and #TodosSomosAutodefensas” (“I am Self-Defense, We are all Self-Defenders”) has been launched on social media sites such as Twitter, Facebook and YouTube and is gathering momentum across the nation. All elements of Mexican society are signaling that they will no longer tolerate criminal impunity and that they are taking matters into their own hands, albeit as a pacifist, social, anti-crime movement. This loss of confidence by human rights activists, businessmen, politicians, students, public servants, the clergy and many other citizens indicates that Mexicans across the board have ultimately lost faith in their government’s ability to maintain order, protect life and property and successfully prosecute and punish criminals.
Mexico is at the cusp of a popular revolution that could change the political landscape of the nation. As a Dead Man Walking, the death or arrest of Chapo Guzman will only serve to place a Band-Aid over the hemorrhaging of social control that is bleeding the nation and causing critical institutional weakness. Mexico needs a transfusion of new approaches and people who will radically improve judicial reforms and public safety, and who will translate those new, innovative policies into an era of national peace and prosperity.
Gary Hale is a nonresident fellow in drug policy and Mexico studies.