The largest student-led protest in Taiwan’s history saw more than 350,000 people march against a trade agreement with China.
On Feb. 11, 2015, the Taiwanese Ministry of Justice indicted 118 people for their involvement in the Sunflower Student Movement, the largest student-led demonstration in Taiwan’s history. In March and April 2014, around 300 protesters charged into the Legislative Yuan, the national legislature, and occupied the chamber for 23 days while 350,000+ marched on the streets in opposition of the Cross-Strait Service Trade Agreement (CSSTA), an agreement that would open Taiwan’s service industries, including telecommunications and publishing, to mainland Chinese investment and vice-versa. The protestors argued that the CSSTA would leave Taiwan vulnerable and dependent on China, endangering Taiwanese democracy and independence.
Taiwan has had a long history of democratic change and political shifts through student movements. In 1970s and 1980s, the Tang Wai Movement established the multiparty system and the creation of the Democratic Progressive Party (DPP). In 1990, the Wild Lily Student Movement dissolved the electoral system and created direct presidential voting. In the wake of the indictments, we must wonder: how has the Sunflower Student Movement affected Taiwanese party politics?
In November 2014, after seven months of gestation in the Taiwanese body politic, the sunflower seed planted during the spring protests blossomed. The pro-China ruling party Kuomintang (KMT) that negotiated the CSSTA suffered great loss in the 9-in-1 Election, the largest election in Taiwanese history. Dissatisfied with President Ma Ying-jeou’s governance — he now has a 68.1 percent disapproval rating — and pro-China policies including CSSTA, citizens voted against KMT and cost it the main mayoral races in Taipei, Taichung, and Taoyuan, three of Taiwan’s biggest cities and traditional KMT strongholds. Even in New Taipei City, which includes the upper class suburbs surrounding the capital, current KMT party chair Eric Chu, who had a 25+ percent lead in the polls, won by only a margin of 1.28 percent in the municipal race. Taking responsibility for the landslide loss, President Ma resigned as the KMT party chair.
Meanwhile, the DPP opposition party gained strength as it swept the 11,000 local and municipal positions in the 9-in-1 Election. Like the Wild Lily Movement, the DPP began recruiting many of the Sunflower Student Movement leaders to attract young voters. Taking advantage of the momentum, DPP chairwoman Tsai Ing-wen on February 14 announced her presidential bid for 2016. A newly published Taiwan Think Tank poll indicates that 76 percent of the citizens expect DPP to win the 2016 presidential and municipal election.
The Sunflower Student Movement’s greatest contribution, however, was to lay the groundwork for the reemergence of Taiwan’s civil society and the possibility of a third political party. The movement united 54 civil organizations and NGOs, groups that were previously dysfunctional, and prompted the revival of civic engagement in politics. Independent Ko Wen-je attributed his Taipei mayoral race victory to the civic movement of social media that, according to him, would usher “an era of Taiwan’s new politics.” The Taiwan Think Tank poll showed that “20-to-29 year-old voters are more likely to support non-party candidates than members of either KMT or the DPP,” suggesting the Sunflower movement may give rise to a third party. Regardless of party affiliation, a competitive presidential candidate in 2016 will need to address the issues raised by the Sunflower Student Movement: growing youth unemployment, stagnant low salary levels, dependency on China, and a growing population resonating more and more with Taiwanese nationalism and identity.
In response to the student movement, Beijing will need to convince the Taiwanese youth of CSSTA’s benefits for Taiwan. While Washington supports the current friendly China-Taiwan relations, potential presidential candidate Hillary Clinton cautions Taiwan against over-dependence on China. With the possible DPP control in 2016, Beijing may take a more aggressive stance on its “One China” policy, demanding more economically and politically. Meanwhile, Hong Kong, which has recently seen its own season of student protests for democracy, will be watching closely to see how Beijing responds to Taiwan’s growing nationalism.
Aaron Huang is a research assistant for the Baker Institute China Studies Program working under the supervision of fellow Steven W. Lewis. Huang, a Rice University sophomore, is majoring in economics and policy studies.