Much remains unknown about the downing of Malaysia Airlines 17, including the definitive identification of the guilty party.
The plane was likely shot down by a surface-to-air missile of a kind possessed by both the Russian and Ukrainian militaries; speculation focusses on the Buk missile system. Strong circumstantial evidence points to pro-Russian Ukrainian insurgents as the likely culprits. Journalists have reported seeing a system like the Buk in the hands of militants; insurgents might have gotten it either directly from Russia or seized it from Ukrainian military forces. The Ukrainian government has published intelligence intercepts purporting to show that the insurgents were responsible for shooting down the airplane. If insurgents are guilty, they almost certainly acted in the belief that they were firing at a Ukrainian military aircraft. This, it should be noted, in no way mitigates their deadly recklessness in shooting at a high-altitude target in an area routinely transited by commercial aircraft.
The militants have denied responsibility; so has Russia.
In the short-term, local and international efforts will be directed at determining the full facts surrounding the Flight 17 tragedy.
The medium- to longer-term ramifications on the Ukrainian crisis are unclear. There are numerous parties with divergent, even conflicting, agendas: the Ukrainian government, the insurgents, Russia, the United States, the EU, NATO. Moreover, events as dramatic as the downing of a commercial airliner can create unpredictable dynamics. That said — AND assuming that pro-Russian militants are responsible —there are several probable outcomes:
The downing will discredit the Ukrainian militants who already have little sympathy outside Russia. Killing hundreds of innocent civilians — even in error — will rightly lead to universal condemnation.
It will increase pressure on the EU to move forward with additional economic sanctions against Russia. The United States announced additional sanctions just before the downing; in the wake of the tragedy Washington may well announce more. The EU has been extremely wary of tightening sanctions; they hurt European firms doing business in Russia. The death of nearly 300 people — many Western Europeans — will make it harder for the EU to resist U.S. pressure to tighten the economic screws on Russia.
The downing will strengthen the position of those in the United States agitating for greater military support for the Ukrainian government. U.S. military support to the Ukraine has been modest to date. We are likely to see calls for more provision of lethal assistance or even the deployment of U.S. advisors.
It will also weaken the international position of Russian President Putin. At a minimum, the downing reveals Moscow’s inability to control its clients in Eastern Ukraine. It will also surely increase Russia’s diplomatic isolation on Ukraine. Much depends on Putin’s response: Will he realize that he’s overplayed his hand to Russia’s disadvantage? Or will he double-down on what appears to be an increasingly bad bet?
Stay tuned.
Joe Barnes is the Baker Institute’s Bonner Means Baker Fellow. From 1979 to 1993, he was a career diplomat with the U.S. Department of State, serving in Europe, Africa, the Middle East and South Asia.