President Barack Obama convenes a National Security Council meeting in the Situation Room of the White House to discuss the situation in Ukraine, March 3, 2014. Official White House Photo by Pete Souza.
The situation in Ukraine is the most serious foreign policy challenge ever faced by the Obama administration. Unfortunately, things could get worse. On Tuesday, Russian troops fired warning shots over the heads of unarmed Ukrainian soldiers outside the Belbek air base in Crimea. Fortunately, no one was hit, and the immediate crisis was defused. But this event illustrates how quickly things could get out of control; if someone is wounded or killed — whether by a deliberate act or a mistake — we could see the violence spiral upward.
How should the United States respond? The president should make clear that using force to settle issues with Ukraine is not acceptable. Indeed, he has already said this. But the key is having concrete measures to back up his statement that “[t]he United States will stand with the international community in affirming that there will be costs for any military intervention in Ukraine.” What can be done?
The United States has already taken some concrete steps; for example, Secretary of State John Kerry has gone to Kiev with a $1 billion aid package. But the most critical task is to rally support for Ukraine from the nations of Europe. This will not be easy. Many countries have condemned Russia’s actions, but moving from words to deeds — in particular, agreeing to impose economic sanctions on Russia if they do not back down — will be difficult. The EU is Russia’s largest trading partner, and European countries import a great deal of oil and natural gas from Russia. However, the Obama administration should exert a maximum effort to convince Europe that it is vital to be able to play the sanction card.
At the same time it seeks to build a coalition to impose costs on Russia, the administration should also move forward by using diplomacy to defuse the crisis. It is encouraging that Russia agreed to a NATO request to meet Wednesday to discuss Ukraine and that President Vladimir Putin said Russia has no intention “to fight the Ukrainian people.” The United States should be actively engaged in these discussions, urging Russia to back down and accept the situation in Ukraine.
Looking down the road, the United States should encourage the International Monetary Fund to put together a package that — along with reforms by the government of Ukraine — will keep that country from going bankrupt. These reforms will be painful for the people of Ukraine, and the United States should consider finding ways to reduce the costs.
Finally, the United States should encourage international monitoring of the Ukrainian presidential election scheduled for May 25. It is vital that all interested parties — both inside and outside Ukraine — believe that these elections are fair and accept the legitimacy of the new government.
Foreign policy is never easy. As the current situation in Ukraine illustrates, pursuing our goals requires following a variety of paths at the same time. I hope the Obama administration will proceed down these multiple paths and find a way to defuse this crisis while preserving Ukraine.
Richard J. Stoll, Ph.D., is the Albert Thomas Professor of Political Science at Rice University. He is also a Rice scholar at the Baker Institute. Stoll’s current research includes forecasting terrorism, accounting for Chinese international economic activity and predicting support for NATO’s mission in Afghanistan among European countries.