The Supreme Court’s decision last June in Shelby County v. Holder struck down a section of the Voting Rights Act of 1965 that required nine states, including Texas, to obtain federal approval before making any changes in state and local election laws. The city of Pasadena, Texas, lost no time in placing on November’s ballot a proposal to adopt a mixed plan of single-member and at-large representation for its city council. The ballot initiative, Proposition 1, called for the replacement of two single-member district council seats with two at-large seats. Opponents of the proposition claimed that this change would significantly harm the ability of Hispanic voters to elect candidates of their choice. Advance federal approval of this change in the way Pasadena elects its city council would most likely not have been granted. The Justice Department has previously held that at-large forms of representation impede minority voters’ — in this case, Hispanics’ — ability to elect candidates of their choice.
Proposition 1 was narrowly adopted by the voters of Pasadena by a margin of 79 votes out of 6,429 votes cast. How racially/ethnically polarized was the vote to adopt a mixed, at-large and single-member district plan for the Pasadena City Council? The evidence below suggests Anglo and Hispanic voters were significantly polarized on this issue.
Table 1. Percent vote cast for City of Pasadena Proposition 1 by percent of voting age population Anglo and Hispanic
Hispanic and Anglo voters were almost diametrically divided in their support of this proposition, with Hispanic majority precincts voting on average 68 percent against the proposition, and Anglo majority precincts voting on average 67 percent for the proposition.
The proportion of the vote for Proposition 1 declined 0.62 percent with each 1 percent increase in the proportion of Hispanic voting age population per precinct. The proportion of the vote increased 0.69 percent with each 1 percent increase in the proportion of Anglo voting age population per precinct (Table 1).
It appears that voter turnout may have been the deciding factor in the slim margin of victory (79 votes) for Proposition 1. The average turnout in majority Hispanic precincts was 9 percent compared to an average turnout of 12 percent in majority Anglo precincts.
A 1 percent increase in the proportion of Hispanic voting age population per precinct was associated with a 5 percent lower rate of voter participation among registered voters in that precinct. Conversely, a 1 percent increase in the proportion of Anglo voting age population per precinct was associated with an 8.6 percent higher rate of voter turnout in the November 2013 election.
Given the overwhelming opposition to Proposition 1 among Hispanic voters who did vote in November’s election, it seems safe to speculate that a small increase in Hispanic voter turnout would have defeated the proposition.
Table 2. Voter turnout (%) by percent of voting age population Anglo and Hispanic
Robert Stein is the Baker Institute fellow in urban politics and the Lena Gohlman Fox Professor of Political Science at Rice University.