District I is one of two single-member majority Hispanic city council districts in Houston and the only contested Hispanic seat in this year’s general and runoff election. Given the increasing focus on Hispanic voters and their likelihood of becoming a major political force in Houston, Texas and national politics, it is worth looking at who among the candidates in the runoff election is likely to succeed the term-limited incumbent in this seat, and why.
In the general election four candidates evenly split voter support, with the top two finishers in the general election — Robert Gallegos and Gracie Garces — receiving 52 percent of the vote cast. The third and fourth places finishers in the general election — Leticia Ablaza and Ben Mendez — received almost half the vote cast but will not be in the runoff election.
One means of assessing the likely winner in the District I council runoff election is ask who supporters of the two candidates that did not get into the runoff election (Ablaza and Mendez) will vote for in runoff election — Gallegos or Garces? Turnout for runoff elections is a smaller portion of the general election vote and runoff voters are almost exclusively comprised of voters who supported one of the general election candidates. If we assume that general election supporters of the runoff candidates will return for the runoff and vote for their general election choice, it is the voters who cast their ballot for either Mendez or Ablaza that will determine the winner of the runoff election between Gallegos and Garces. Recall that 48 percent of the vote cast in the general election was cast for one of these two candidates.
We can get some leverage on answering this question by looking at the relationship between the share (percent) of vote by precinct Gallegos and Garces received in the general election and the share of vote by precinct that each of two candidates that did not get into the runoff received in the general election, i.e., Ablaza and Mendez. The assumption is that voters in the same precinct share preferences for candidates. The more closely aligned the vote share of a precinct is between runoff and non-runoff candidates, the more likely voters who voted for one of the non-runoff candidates will support the runoff candidate whose vote is more closely aligned with the candidate their neighbors voted for in the general election.
The Mendez vote
There is no significant relationship between the general election vote share for either Gallegos or Garces and the vote share by precinct received by Mendez. Moreover, neither candidate in the runoff election has any significant advantage in precincts (and with presumably voters) where Mendez garnered his largest general election vote share. An increase of 1 percent in the share of vote Mendez received across district precincts is associated with only 0.15 percent increase in vote share for Gallegos and 0.13 percent increase in vote share for Garces.
Votes cast (%) by precinct for runoff candidates in Dist. I by percent of votes cast for Mendez (%)
The Ablaza vote
Precincts where Ablaza won her largest share of the vote were significantly more supportive of Gallegos’ candidacy than Garces’. A one percent increase in Alblaz’s vote per precinct is associated with a 0.44 percent increase in the vote cast for Gallegos but only a 0.31 percent increase in the vote cast for Garces. This difference is statistically significant. This would suggest that Gallegos has an advantage in winning a majority of Ablaza’s supporters in the runoff election.
Votes cast (%) by precinct for runoff candidates in Dist. I by votes cast for Ablaza (%)
Vote by race and ethnicity
District I is a majority Hispanic district; 57 percent of the voting age population are Hispanic. In precincts where more than half of the voting age population was Hispanic, Garces received on average 26 percent of the general election vote. Gallegos on average received 21 percent of the vote in the same majority Hispanic precincts.
In District I, Anglo voters comprise only 10 percent of the voting age population and African-Americans represent 13 percent of the voting age population. There are only five precincts (out of 62) in District I where a majority of the voting age population is African-American. Neither candidate has a significant advantage with either African-American or Anglo voters.
The Garcia and Alvarado vote
The runoff election in District I has become another political competition between State Sen. Sylvia Garcia and State Rep. Carol Alvarado. Sen. Garcia defeated Rep. Alvarado in a runoff election for the 6th State Senate seat in January 2013. Sen. Garcia is supporting Gallegos in the runoff, Rep. Alvarado is supporting Garces. Since Mendez has endorsed Gallegos and Albaza has not endorsed either candidate it might be worth asking where Albaza supporters stand in the Garcia/Alvarado competition. We can compare the vote cast for Garcia and Alvarado and Albaza in 40 of the 62 precincts in District I that are also in State Senate District 6 to get some hint about how Albaza supporters might vote in the runoff election, assuming their past support of Garcia or Alvardo extends to their surrogates in the District I runoff. There is a strong and positive relationship between the vote shares Albaza and Alvarado received in District I precincts, but a strong and negative relationship between the vote shares received by Albaza and Garcia in the same precincts. A 1 percent increase in the vote cast for Alvarado is associated with a 0.25 percent increase in the share of vote Albaza received in the general election. The opposite is true for the Garcia vote. A 1 percent increase in Garcia’s vote share is associated with a 0.25 percent decrease in the share of vote Albaza received in the general election. It is noteworthy that Garcia’s vote share is unrelated to the proportion of vote Gallegos received in the general election.
It would seem that if Albaza’s supporters disproportionately voted for Alvarado they might be more inclined to support the candidate endorsed by Alvarado in District I runoff, Ms. Garces.
The percent of vote for Ablaza by vote shared for Garcia and Alvarado in the 6th State Senate District runoff election
The runoff election in District I should be highly competitive with the slight advantage to Garces. Gallegos must rely on turning out Ablaza’s supporters, who appear to be more likely to support his candidacy over Garces. Voter turnout in District I was only 9 percent, well below the citywide voter turnout at 18 percent. Garcia’s support of Gallegos should be instrumental in providing Gallegos the resources needed to turn out Ablaza’s supporters for the runoff. Alvarado’s support of Garces and her history of support in the district (she was District I city council member for six years) and Ablaza’s voters past support of Alvarado provides Garces a potential advantage.
Robert Stein is the Baker Institute fellow in urban politics and the Lena Gohlman Fox Professor of Political Science at Rice University.