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Well, the Supreme Court has spoken — at least for the present — on the subject of gay marriage. The news, for supporters, has been good. I will leave it to lawyers to sort through the full ramifications of the court’s two decisions. The first related to California’s Proposition 8, which restricted marriage to a man and a woman; the second focused on the Defense of Marriage Act, which forbade federal recognition of same-sex marriage. The bottom line: Gay couples can again marry in California and the federal government must recognize same-sex marriages contracted at the state level. The court stopped short of asserting a nationwide right for gay couples to marry; nor did it address whether a state — for instance, Texas — must recognize a same-sex marriage from another state — say, Vermont. We can expect years of litigation before the Supreme Court rules definitively on either issue.
In the wake of the decisions, about 30 percent of Americans now live in jurisdictions where gay marriage in legal. The number is likely to increase. The reason: a dramatic shift in public views of the subject. A majority of Americans now support same-sex marriage, up from perhaps a quarter less than 20 years ago. Support is even stronger around young people. This does not mean that gay marriage will soon become a fact of life everywhere around the country — at least absent another landmark Supreme Court decision. We can expect more socially and politically conservative states — notably in the South — to continue limiting marriage to opposite-sex couples.
I’ve stated my own views before: In 50 years, most Americans will look back and wonder what all the fuss was about. Heterosexual couples will continue to marry. Churches, temples and mosques will be free to choose whether to conduct religious ceremonies for same-sex couples or not. Civilization as we know it will continue. Life will go on. As a nation, we will no doubt confront problems, many serious, some critical. But whether to grant gay Americans equality under the law will — gratifyingly — not be one of them.
Joe Barnes is the Baker Institute’s Bonner Means Baker Fellow. From 1979 to 1993, he was a career diplomat with the U.S. Department of State, serving in Europe, Africa, the Middle East and South Asia.