If all goes according to plan — following a marathon filibuster by state Sen. Wendy Davis, D-Fort Worth — at the stroke of midnight tonight, SB 5 will be tossed into the trash instead of being delivered to Gov. Rick Perry’s desk. The bill’s defeat represents a victory for pro-abortion rights activists, but one that is likely to be short-lived if, as expected, Gov. Perry includes abortion-related legislation in his call for a second special legislative session.
Among other things, SB 5 would prohibit most abortions after 20 weeks and require abortion clinics to meet the standards of ambulatory surgery centers, the latter of which — at least in the short term — would shutter all but five of the state’s 42 abortion clinics and limit abortions to the state’s four major metro areas (Austin, Dallas-Fort Worth, Houston, San Antonio). It also would mandate that doctors performing abortions have admitting privileges at a nearby hospital and place greater restrictions on the use of the abortion drug RU-486.
SB 5’s failure is certain to heighten tensions within the Texas Republican Party. Much of the ire of GOP anti-abortion activists will be directed at House Speaker Joe Straus. Under Straus’ watch, the bill was delayed in the House, visibly by Democrats and pro-abortion rights activists, as well as behind the scenes by Republican members of the speaker’s leadership team. While SB 5 did in the end pass, with a vote that allowed all Republican representatives who wanted to be on record supporting the “right side” of the issue (90 percent of Texas Republicans support the bill’s prohibition of abortion after 20 weeks and over three-quarters oppose abortion except in the case of rape, incest or risk to the mother’s life), it did so too late to safeguard the bill against a filibuster. As a result, I don’t think Speaker Straus should be expecting Lt. Gov. David Dewhurst to be buying him a steak dinner anytime soon.
Today’s filibuster will place a spotlight on Sen. Davis, the Texas Democratic Party’s most promising rising star after San Antonio Mayor Julián Castro. Her personal role in engaging in a 13-hour filibuster to protect abortion rights in Texas will burnish Davis’ already impressive progressive credentials both in Texas and nationwide. Suffice it to say that Sen. Davis will have no difficulty raising funds for her re-election campaign in 2014 in the state’s only competitive state senate district.
While today’s presence in the limelight will without question be extremely beneficial for Sen. Davis’ image, it may not be entirely absent of negative consequences for her political future as a statewide candidate in the Lone Star State. For instance, it would not be surprising to see the filibuster featured in an attack ad by a hypothetical GOP opponent in 2018, say in a race for lieutenant governor, with the message being that Davis engaged in a 13-hour filibuster to singlehandedly block the passage of legislation that prohibited abortions of five-month-old babies. That would, of course, not be a fair and balanced portrayal of the filibuster, but then again attack ads are rarely fair and balanced.
In the very likely event Sen. Davis’ filibuster is successful, it is doubtful that Gov. Perry will be content to end the 2013 legislative season with Texas Democrats and the House Republican leadership having gotten the better of him. Therefore we should fully expect a call from the governor for a second special legislative session that includes abortion on the agenda. Furthermore, it would not be out of character for Gov. Perry to use his second special session call to send a signal to those responsible for SB 5’s demise that their actions have consequences by including additional topics on the agenda that are anathema to liberals, such as drug tests for welfare recipients and the decriminalization of concealed weapons on college campuses (i.e., campus carry).
Mark P. Jones is the Baker Institute’s fellow in political science as well as the Joseph D. Jamail Chair in Latin American Studies and the chair of the Department of Political Science at Rice University.