Following the death of a Colorado prison official, two Texas prosecutors, and the killing of an intruder at the home of a Colorado prosecutor, speculation about the nature of the attacks has been rampant. There have been three general theories about the attacks: (1) the attacks are the personal vendetta of an individual or individuals prosecuted by these officials, (2) the attacks are the work of the Texas Aryan Brotherhood, and (3) the attacks are the work of Mexican cartels.
I will begin with what I consider to be the least likely scenario, the Mexican cartel hypothesis. While I cannot rule this hypothesis out, based on my research on the Cartel Arellano Felix, AKA the Tijuana Cartel, Mexican cartels avoid killing U.S. officials. To understand why, we have understand the history of U.S.-Mexico relations on the drug issue and the Enrique Camarena event.
Enrique Camarena was an effective U.S. Drug Enforcement Administration agent who was abducted in broad daylight in Guadalajara, Mexico, in 1985. U.S. law enforcement and customs officials responded by shutting down the border, claiming they were doing car-by-car searches for Camarena or his body. This was really an excuse to send a message to cartels and the Mexican government that a line had been crossed when the DEA agent was killed. This line appears to continue to be respected. When U.S. Immigration and Customs Enforcement agent Jaime Zapata was murdered, his killer — a presumed Zetas operator — was quickly arrested and confessed arguing that he mistook Zapata and the other agent for rival traffickers. This suggests that the Zetas did not sanction his actions and required him to turn himself in. American law enforcement continue to ask interrogated traffickers if U.S. law enforcement are still off limits and that trend appears to have continued over time.
Mexican cartels are rational actors that understand that U.S. law enforcement attention is bad for business and results in increased targeting and disruption of their operations. Also, illicit traffic flows on licit traffic. A shutdown of the border, however brief, is extremely bad for business. While the rule of not targeting law enforcement does not apply in Mexico, I attribute this to the varying state capacity in the two countries. The United States has had decades to build its law enforcement institutions to their present capabilities, and the Mexican government is currently on that long slow road.
The vendetta hypothesis seems less likely following this week’s killing of an intruder outside the mountain home of a Colorado prosecutor. The geographic spread and number of killings increasingly indicates a higher level of intelligence gathering and sophistication, usually indicative of organized crime. Still, the possibility that these attacks are the work of individuals with no organized crime or political insurgent links cannot be ruled out. According to the New York Times, investigators are looking into a justice of the peace who was fired for allegedly stealing computer monitors and a man who allegedly left threatening Facebook postings.
The most popular hypothesis now revolves around the Aryan Brotherhood of Texas (ABT), a white supremacist prison gang. On March 19, Tom Clements, the director of the Colorado Prison System, was killed while opening his front door. The suspected killer, Evan Spencer Ebel, who was a suspected member of the Brotherhood of Aryan Alliance, died on March 21 in an altercation with police in Texas. For a more detailed timeline of relevant events, click here.
Law enforcement knows that the Aryan Brotherhood of Texas maintains meticulous records on potential informants. Those records on informants could easily be converted to information used to hunt prosecutors targeting the ABT. The nature of prosecution is that a prosecutor with more experience in a particular area is more likely to get the case, leading to a concentration of a small number of prosecutors with experience on the ABT.
It is surprising that the ABT would target law enforcement officials. While its members are already in prison, conditions can always get worse. Prison officials armed with evidence connecting the ABT to these crimes can increase the number of inmates in Secure Housing Units, where their contact is tightly controlled, or even place documented ABT members in full lockdown, where their contact with the outside world becomes nonexistent. Secure housing units are not pleasant places to be as prison gang hunger strikes in California attest. The ABT may be trying to establish or expand its reputation for violence, making this seemingly irrational position appear rational over the long term. Or they may be retaliating for scheduled prosecutions. They are likely to suffer a crackdown from the law enforcement and prison systems that will deter these types of attacks in the future. While one prosecutor has recused himself from the case for security reasons, there are many to replace him and security concerns will not be a long-term deterrent for other prosecutors.
Nathan Jones is the Alfred C. Glassell III Postdoctoral Fellow in Drug Policy at the Baker Institute. His areas of interest include U.S.-Mexico security issues, illicit networks and cross-border flows.