Will a leadership change in China lead to new environmental policies?

 

In his first speech as China’s new premier, Li Keqiang vowed to tackle China’s environmental problems “with an iron fist.” China’s leadership transition poses a range of implications in the growth of PRC economic policy, but one of the most startling statements stemming from the flurry of activity surrounding the transition was not necessarily President Xi Jinping’s statement about the “China Dream” — the domestic and international vision for China — but rather Premier Li’s realistic appraisal of what many consider to be China’s nightmare: pervasive air, water and food pollution.  In recent years, China’s policy with regard to the relationship between environmental preservation and economic growth has highlighted environmental degradation as an unavoidable byproduct of the rapid pace of China’s globalization.  Scandals ranging from melamine-tainted milk to the recent discovery of over 13,000 dead pigs dumped into Shanghai-area rivers to above-index air pollution readings in Beijing all highlight major environmental challenges faced by Chinese leaders.  The environmental emphasis decision in the speech by Li, a Peking University-trained economist, suggests that the environmental impacts of economic growth may be considered more seriously by the newest slate of party leaders.

While some China watchers separate the environmental and economic impacts of globalization in the PRC, Council on Foreign Relations fellow Elizabeth Economy has estimated that China loses 9 percent of its gross domestic product (GDP) from environmental costs.  The environmental emphases in speeches by Li, as well as outgoing premier Wen Jiabao, highlight a potential shift in China’s attitude toward industries like energy and manufacturing.

Li’s statement also may portend a loosening of restrictions surrounding discussions of pollution on social media, an area of particular challenge for regulators seeking to balance users discussions of weather, water, and air with more socially destabilizing threads about specific pollution events.

Ultimately, Li’s acknowledgement of China’s environmental challenges signals that China will begin to take leadership in internalizing the environmental externalities of economic development.

For more detailed analysis of China’s recent leadership transition, please join Aynne Kokas, Baker Institute fellow in Chinese media; Steven Lewis, C.V. Starr Transnational China fellow; and Wenhong Chen, assistant communications at the University of Texas at Austin, for the Transnational China Project‘s event “The Politics of Reform in China.”  The event, part of the Baker Institute’s 20th Anniversary series, will be held on Monday, April 1, from 4:00 pm to 5:30 pm at the Kelly International Conference Facility in Baker Hall.  The public is invited, but an RSVP is required.

Aynne Kokas is the Baker Institute’s fellow in Chinese media and a sustainability postdoctoral fellow at the Chao Center for Asian Studies at Rice University. Kokas’ current research focuses on the circulation of U.S. environmental media on Chinese social networks.