Colombian cocaine production capacity is down by 72 percent since 2001, according to a study released last week by the Office of National Drug Control Policy (ONDCP). But the apparent victory may be increasingly irrelevant as cocaine markets diffuse to other regions and prescription drug abuse becomes an increasing problem.
According to the study, potential production of pure cocaine in Colombia is down to 195 metric tons in 2011 from 700 metric tons in 2001. It should be noted that the results of this survey and the recently released 2011 Colombia Coca Crop Survey diverge significantly in their capacity estimates, which are based on satellite imagery and utilize differing methodologies. U.S. estimates are sunnier on the reduction in coca capacity in Colombia than those of the U.N. The ONDCP also touts in its press release that “there has been a 43 percent drop in the number of cocaine seizures collected from local, state, and federal forensic labs in the U.S. since 2006.”
Three metrics have traditionally been used to measure success in the “drug war”: price, purity and availability. According to the ONDCP, cocaine purity is down by 26 percent since 2006. According to the New York Times, price is “mostly steady” (demand is also down) and the aforementioned drop in seizures suggests availability is down.
Why a coca victory is not all its cracked up to be (no pun intended)
Peru is now the world’s top coca producer according to the ONDCP. As the 2012 World Drug Report has described, as coca production in Colombia has gone down, production in the surrounding Andean region — including Peru and Bolivia — has increased. This is consistent with what has been described as the balloon analogy, where as one pushes on one side of the balloon it bulges in another. Colombia has been the site of significant pressure embodied by the U.S. and Colombian cooperation on Plan Colombia, which provided billions of U.S. dollars for Colombian counter-narcotics operations.
Both the ONDCP and the World Drug Report released by the United Nations Office of Drugs and Crime (UNODC) have pointed out that cocaine use is down in the United States, but has increased in Europe. World cocaine markets appear to be diffusing. According to the 2012 World Drug Report:
North America has seen a marked decline in cocaine use, mainly due to a decline in the United States, from 3.0 per cent (2006) to 2.2 per cent (2010) among adults aged 15-64; however, there has not been such a decline in Europe, where cocaine use stabilized over the same period. Latest data from Australia show an increase in cocaine use.
The report also identified West Africa as a major transit zone for cocaine on its way to Europe and experts are identifying new pockets of use around the world.
Prescription drug abuse
While coca markets are shrinking in some areas and diffusing to others, the “drug war” may be undergoing a fundamental shift toward prescription drugs that could change its very nature. According to the New York Times:
The same survey that identified 1.5 million cocaine users in 2010 found 7 million users of “psychotherapeutics.” Of the 36,450 overdose deaths in the United States in 2008, 20,044 involved a prescription drug, more than all illicit drugs combined.
The market shift toward prescription drugs could make far-flung supply-side strategies increasingly irrelevant. Strategists in the White House are already considering long-term shifts toward institution building in areas wracked by drug violence, like Central America. This shift also means that border security will become less relevant because prescription drugs are sold domestically.
Prosecutions of doctors accused of supplying patients with drugs for nonmedical purposes have increased dramatically in the last decade. The American Medical Association has come out against the new criminalization of malpractice approach because it says it interferes with a doctor’s ability to treat patients.
The fine line between legal and illegal in these cases is not just concerning to medical associations and doctors. It has a dangerous potential to exacerbate biases already built into the legal system where race and socio-economic status result in widely divergent penalties for similar crimes. RAND is currently studying the role of race in whether or not an individual will be referred to a diversion program.
One high profile case of diversion program referral came in 2003 when Rush Limbaugh, a staunch “drug war” advocate, admitted that he was addicted to prescription drugs. He was put into a treatment diversion program and fined. According to the ONDCP, federal 2012 counter-drug funding currently includes: interdiction ($3.6 billion), law enforcement ($9.4 billion), treatment and prevention programs ($10.1 billion) and $2.1 billion in international programs, much of it to Mexico via the Merida Initiative. It is estimated that state and local governments spend similar amounts on drug enforcement domestically.
Nathan Jones is the Alfred C. Glassell III Postdoctoral Fellow in Drug Policy at the Baker Institute. His areas of interest include U.S.-Mexico security issues, illicit networks and cross-border flows.