Using the premise that legalizing drugs will stop the violence in Mexico and cripple the cartels is a fallacy. Legalization will only worsen the usage problem.
Currently, Mexican cartels are believed to derive approximately 60 percent of their profits from non-drug sources, and a portion of the remaining 40 percent of their drug proceeds are believed to derive from prescription drugs. The diversification has come as levels of usage have stagnated or declined. According to DEA statistics released for the period 2000 to 2011, drug use is down dramatically across the board for teenagers. Meth use is down 42 percent, cocaine by 48 percent, crack by 50 percent and LSD by 50 percent. Clearly, emphasis by communities on education has paid off with teens.
While the use of heroin, cocaine, LSD and the like is on the decline, abuse of prescription drugs (which are already legal) and marijuana is on the rise. One reason is that prescription drugs do not carry the same harmful image. The cartels selling into the U.S. market are likely well aware of this, as are any number of others trying to make a profit through pill mills. With marijuana, legalization has been implemented in some states. Substantial efforts have been made to change the perception of marijuana as harmful, and marijuana use among 10th, 11th and 12th graders is showing signs of increasing. High school students are also indulging in “Spice,” or synthetic marijuana.
With regards to older users, more than 75 percent of illicit drug users are employed, and drug usage has been found to take its toll in terms of absenteeism, poor judgment and lack of trust. Organizations that have implemented drug-free workplace programs have experienced decreases in absenteeism, accidents, turnover and theft. In the workplace, positive drug tests have fallen from 13.6 percent to 3.6 percent since 1988. In the early 1980s, organizations, such as the military, were experiencing usage rate of 25 percent to 30 percent. With the implementation of workplace drug testing, military illicit drug usage dropped from approximately 28 percent to under 5 percent. Workplace testing is an effective tool. Recreational drug users do not view their indulgence as worth losing their job over.
The cartels will not be conquered by legalization, and would likely be pleased to see marijuana’s legalization expand, because demand for their product will rise. In states with legal marijuana use, the cartels have made inroads into the industry already.
If the goal is to drop U.S. demand, then further education and workplace testing are clearly effective. If an additional goal is to counter the violence of the Mexican cartels, insurgency strategies are required. Organized crime in Mexico is exhibiting many of the same weapons, methods and tactics employed by insurgents in Iraq and Afghanistan.
Joan Neuhaus Schaan is the fellow in homeland security and terrorism at the Baker Institute, and the coordinator of the Texas Security Forum.