This Saturday it is likely that two things will occur in South Carolina. Rick Perry will finish fifth in the Republican presidential primary (last among those candidates still in the race) and end (technically “suspend”) his presidential campaign. While the unsuccessful Perry campaign has had a negative impact on the perception the rest of the country has of Texas, it also has adversely affected Perry’s political standing in the state. The image of the Rick Perry who returns to Texas from South Carolina on Sunday will contrast markedly with that of the Rick Perry who announced his presidential candidacy in South Carolina on Aug. 13.
First, Perry’s numerous gaffes and debate mishaps, along with his campaign’s flawed strategy and inconsistent campaign messages, have tarnished Perry’s reputation in the state as a skilled campaigner and savvy politician. Also devalued are the “campaign guru” credentials of several of Perry’s historic advisers, especially Dave Carney.
Second, Perry’s last-minute attacks on Mitt Romney for being a “vulture capitalist” displayed a surprising lack of consistency for a candidate who began his campaign by contrasting the virtues of the free market, limited government and business- friendly Texas model with that of the interventionist, big government and anti-business D.C. model of President Barack Obama. These attacks have not been well received by many Perry backers in Texas (some of whom, like Romney, are venture capitalists). They are certain to be reminded of these Perry attacks on the free enterprise system in the fall when campaign footage of Perry and Newt Gingrich appears in ads attacking President Obama’s November rival, Mitt Romney.
Third, prior to his presidential bid, Perry successfully walked a tightrope on immigration, placating his base while not alienating the one-third to two-fifths of Hispanics who consistently have voted for him and other Republicans in Texas. Under attack for his support for in-state tuition for undocumented immigrants, Perry fell off the tightrope, landing to the right. This shift was epitomized by his embracing of Maricopa County Sheriff Joe Arpaio, who was named chair of the Perry Campaign in Arizona and accompanied Perry on the campaign trail. While a majority of Hispanic voters do not rank immigration as a high priority issue, they do make a distinction between those immigration policies which appear to be based on a desire to uphold the rule of law and those which they see as being overtly anti-Hispanic. For a majority of Hispanics, Arpaio’s behavior falls in the latter category, something that, combined with other immigration-related statements made by Perry during the campaign, cannot help but weaken Perry’s support among Texas Hispanics.
While Perry returns to Texas from his failed foray into national politics with a diminished political reputation (for the reasons mentioned above, among others), he will nevertheless continue to be the most powerful and influential political actor in the state. Though over the past five months he proved unable to hit Major League pitching, he still possesses all of the skills that have allowed him to dominate the Texas League for the past decade. These considerable abilities, combined with a vast network of loyal appointees, former appointees and aides, and supporters embedded throughout state government, lobbying firms and the private sector ensure that Perry will continue to be a force to be reckoned with during the final three years of his present term in office.
At the same time however, support by Republican political insiders and major Republican donors for a Perry 2014 gubernatorial candidacy is without a doubt much more tepid today then this time last year. Expect an enhanced preference by these elites for another Republican to take the reins in 2015 — be it Greg Abbott, David Dewhurst, Michael McCaul or Todd Staples.
Mark P. Jones is the James A. Baker III Institute for Public Policy’s fellow in political science as well as the Joseph D. Jamail Chair in Latin American Studies and chair of the Department of Political Science at Rice University.