Will gender imbalance stall China’s rise?

Conventional wisdom holds that China’s rise is fast and furious, that it is poised to soon boast the world’s largest economy. It will lead Asia’s triumphant march back to the international standing it once enjoyed during the heyday of the Silk Road. As a summer intern at the American Enterprise Institute working on population studies, I’ve learned that China can already boast about something else: It has one of the world’s highest sex ratios at birth.

It may seem like an odd demographic statistic to keep track of, but it is a loaded one. The number shows how many baby boys are born for every hundred baby girls. Usually falling somewhere between 102 and 106, anything above this range can be called biologically impossible. According to the Population Division of the Department of Economic and Social Affairs of the United Nations Secretariat, for the period from 2005 to 2010, China’s ratio was a staggering 120.

The magnitude of the number has multiple distressing implications. To begin with, it reveals the alarming prevalence of sex-selected infanticide, also known as “gendercide.” A combination of gender preference and population control has had disastrous consequences. As fertility rates plummet with enforcement of the one child policy, enormous value is heaped on each birth. Additionally, in traditional Chinese culture, daughters leave the family when they are married, but sons remain to support it. Many parents hoping for a son will stop at nothing to guarantee they get one.

In prosperous regions where parents can afford ultrasounds and other modern medical technology, the ratios are most skewed. Some put the total number of missing girls in China as high as 160 million, more females than in all of the United States.

Looking ahead, lopsided generations will leave droves of Chinese men without spouses. A short supply of wives already exists and has generated a black market for brides. Additionally, societies with atypical collections of single males are more violent, have higher crime rates and exhibit greater social unrest than others.

Last month, I heard Chai Ling, founder of the humanitarian organization All Girls Allowed, speak at the Rayburn House Office Building on Capitol Hill about findings from field research conducted on the ground in China. She reported more than 300,000 child brides living in Putian, a city of three million total residents. They had been either kidnapped or purchased from families in rural areas and transported to the city. These injustices will continue to worsen until something is done to bring the sex ratio at birth back down to normal levels.

Gendercide affects more than just China. Fertility rates are dropping all across the world even in the absence of draconian central planning. Gender preferences for sons exist in many cultures, and medical technology is becoming increasingly affordable to all.

Taking a close look at the numbers, one will find that biologically impossible sex ratios at birth exist in countries moving west across the Caucasus region and into Europe. The same UN data show that Armenia (115), Georgia (111), Greece (107), Montenegro (108) and Ireland (107) have all entered this red zone of demographics.

And it’s even happening here in the United States. The National Vital Statistics Reports from the Center for Disease Control reported sex ratios at birth by race for over 30 years ending in 2002. Japanese (109), Hawaiian (108), Chinese (107) and Filipino (107) Americans have dangerously high numbers.

As the saying goes, “demography is destiny.” Populations are ever-changing, but we must be vigilant that ours retains a healthy balance moving forward.

Mark Seraydarian is a senior at McMurtry College majoring in history and policy studies and is interested in transnational issues and global urban change. He is currently interning with political economist Nicholas Eberstadt of the American Enterprise Institute as part of the Baker Institute’s Jesse Jones Leadership Center Summer in D.C. Policy Research Internship Program.