The death of Osama bin Laden is a significant milestone in America’s conflict against Al Qaeda even if, as some experts say, bin Laden had become more of a figurehead and less of a leader and operational planner. But we should not believe that this marks the end of the struggle. Although the central leadership of Al Qaeda has suffered a number of losses (primarily through drone strikes), we need to keep in mind that it has a number of affiliated groups and that it has shown a great deal of resiliency in overcoming past losses. So what happens next?
- We should expect two reactions from Al Qaeda and its supporters. First, in the short run, we can expect to see a number of protests against the U.S. and the West in countries with Al Qaeda supporters. Second, we should assume that Al Qaeda would seek to retaliate for the loss of its leader. But a significant terrorist attack cannot be put together on short notice. Planning and training are required. Hopefully the lead time required to mount such an operation will allow us to uncover and disrupt these plans.
- Bin Laden’s death adds further complication to the U.S. relationship with Pakistan. It is difficult to believe that bin Laden’s presence was unknown to at least some Pakistani government officials. This leads to questions about how much the U.S. can rely on Pakistan to be an ally in the effort against terrorism. As well, such a brazen act by the U.S. military on Pakistani soil will serve to inflame anti-U.S. opinion in that country.
- The death of bin Laden will cause considerable consternation among the remaining leadership of Al Qaeda. Whether or not human sources were a critical part of the intelligence that led to his demise, it is likely that the leadership will assume that there are informers in the organization and the leadership will seek to eliminate them. This will both distract them and further weaken the leadership.
So what is the ultimate importance of bin Laden’s death? I think Winston Churchill said it best: “Now this is not the end. It is not even the beginning of the end. But it is, perhaps, the end of the beginning.”
Richard J. Stoll, Ph.D., is the Albert Thomas Professor of Political Science at Rice University, and a Rice scholar at the Baker Institute. Stoll’s current research includes forecasting terrorism, accounting for Chinese international economic activity and predicting support for NATO’s mission in Afghanistan among European countries.