Each day brings new revelations from the Wikileaks cables. Each revelation results in reassessments of global geopolitics. Analysis of the repercussions may be clouding a larger issue: Is this the next stage of cyberwarfare? To date, WikiLeaks is believed to have primarily dealt in documents of NATO nations.
While there has been much discussion over the years of cyberwarfare, the concept has been limited to accessing sensitive information, denial of service, assuming control of another’s computer system, etc. While each is damaging, none may be as damaging to the United States as the massive release of classified information to the world.
U.S. Army Private First Class Bradley E. Manning, who was arrested earlier this year by U.S. authorities on suspicion he illegally downloaded the diplomatic cables, is thought to be the source of the some WikiLeaks cables, but he is not likely the sole source.
WikiLeaks, which describes itself on its website as a not-for-profit media organization, solicits for donations on its website but hasn’t discussed who is funding this particular release of cables. The group also has previously partnered with other, high-profile journalism sites, including the Investigations Fund, a nonprofit British media site, which refers to WikiLeaks as one of its “International Projects.” Julian Assange is a man of little verifiable history.
Are the leaks designed to create rifts between the U.S. and its allies in order to divide and conquer? And/or is the move a distraction or prelude to something even more significant? Is it an attempt to provoke the curtailment of freedom of speech? Or, harking back to the old comedy “Get Smart,” is the objective simply to create Chaos?
At the diplomatic level, the immediate result will be distance, if not isolation, from allies, and a flurry of maneuvers around the globe. The United States may be viewed as untrustworthy –either due to the opinions expressed or the inability to keep sensitive information from the public domain. Tactically, our federal employees will think twice about each cable they send and what thoughts are committed to paper. Those who have had their names revealed will worry about personal repercussions.
In the near term, government engagement in damage control and crisis management will pull attention from other pressing issues.
How much more information is in the hands of WikiLeaks? According to press reports, WikiLeaks has 1.2 million documents and receives another 10,000 daily. For now, the leaks will be viewed as a threat to the United States and its allies, due to the damaging content to date, and future policy recommendations will reflect this perspective. If new document releases were sensitive cables of other nations or transnational organizations of concern, or of WikiLeaks’ associates, the phenomenon might be viewed differently.
Joan Neuhaus Schaan is the fellow in homeland security and terrorism at the Baker Institute, coordinator of the Texas Security Forum, and serves on the advisory board of the Transborder International Police Association. She has served as the executive director of the Houston-Harris County Regional Homeland Security Advisory Council and on the board of Crime Stoppers of Houston, Inc.