1. Bill White’s Performance.
In spite of having the most impressive resume of any Texas Democratic gubernatorial candidate since perhaps Ann Richards in 1994 as well as spending over $25 million dollars (with additional independent expenditures on his behalf in excess of $5 million), Bill White managed to garner only 42 percent of the vote, 13 percent behind Governor Rick Perry’s 55 percent.
The anti-Democratic national tide (especially strong in Texas) was certainly a major contributing factor to this modest showing. That being said, while it was definitely a very difficult year for a Democrat to run for office, Perry was nevertheless at least in theory not a candidate lacking in weak flanks (e.g., a divisive partisan primary, voter fatigue after 10 years in office, credible charges of cronyism, a looming budget shortfall).
White and his fellow Democrats were unable to mobilize their supporters to turn out to the polls this year. Approximately 38 percent of registered voters participated, only marginally higher than in 2006 (34 percent), and substantially lower than in 2008 (60 percent). Exit polls detail that whereas in 2008, 33 percent of Texas voters were Democrats, 34 percent Republicans, and 33 percent independents; this year Democrats accounted for only 28 percent of voters and Republicans 39 percent (independents stayed constant at 33 percent). While White did extremely well among Democrats (94 percent), Perry did equally well among Republicans (90 percent) as well as bested White among independents (56 to 40 percent). Indicative of his skillful handling of the immigration issue (e.g., being in favor of the Arizona immigration law while assuring Latino voters that they need not worry about similar legislation being enacted in Texas), Perry also garnered 38 percent of the Latino vote.
White is certain to be disappointed with the outcome of yesterday’s election, in which he was unable to surpass even the proportion of the vote (43.7) won by President Barack Obama in 2008. Nevertheless, the silver-lining to this otherwise negative story was that his gubernatorial campaign and the strong state-wide visibility it generated has cemented White’s status as the front-runner to be the Democrat’s 2012 candidate for the US Senate. His inability to gain the support of virtually any Republicans and his failure to attract a majority of independent voters does raise some doubts about his ability to win the 2012 general election against a credible Republican opponent (e.g., Kay Bailey Hutchison, David Dewhurst, Greg Abbott), but his performance yesterday does suggest he would be a competitive candidate in the event that either a weak or ideologically extreme senate candidate emerges out of the Republican primary in 2012 — or if the national tide turns against Republicans in 2012 as it did against Democrats this year.
2. The Texas House and Joe Straus
Mirroring the historic shift in seats which took place at the national level in the U.S. House, Republicans picked up at least 22 seats in the Texas House, giving the party at least 99 seats (compared to 51 for Democrats, with one seat too close to call) when the legislature reconvenes in Austin in January. Republican gains occurred throughout Texas, with pick-ups particularly pronounced in seats previously held by relatively conservative Anglo Democrats from rural areas. During the 2009 legislative session, of the 16 most conservative Democrats, 11 were Anglos, almost all from rural districts. In 2011, only three of these conservative Anglo Democrats (Tracy King, Joseph Pickett, Allan Ritter) will be returning to Austin, as yesterday six were defeated (one retired and one switched parties).
This Republican majority of 99 easily surpasses that possessed by the party when Republican Tom Craddick wrested control of the House from Democratic Speaker Pete Laney in 2003. At that time there were 88 Republicans to 62 Democrats. The last time a party had a majority this large in the House was thirty years ago (1983 session), when Speaker Billy Clayton’s ideologically heterogeneous Democratic Party held 114 seats.
These unexpected Republican gains complicate the re-election plans of Republican Speaker Joe Straus. Straus ousted Craddick from the speakership in 2009 with the support of approximately 10 Republicans and an overwhelming majority of the 74 Democratic House members. The price he paid for this Democratic support was the distribution of key committee and leadership posts to Democrats, as well as the delegation of substantial control over the legislative agenda to the Democratic House leaders. This strong Democratic influence was resented by many conservative Republicans.
In contrast to 2009, and even assuming the universal backing of all Democrats, this time around Straus would need the support of around 25 Republicans (out of 99). Furthermore, given the strong popular mandate for Republican legislative candidates this year, any strategy by Straus that relies more on the support of Democrats than of Republicans to obtain election would likely cause a serious backlash from both the leaders and financial backers of the Texas Republican Party, as well as from party activists and voters. As a result, Straus will need to spend the next two months working to win over his fellow Republicans to gain their support for his candidacy. Given the lack of a strong Republican challenger combined with Straus’s incumbent status as Speaker (and the difficult legislative tasks facing the House this session), Joe Straus is still the odds on favorite to be elected Speaker, but following yesterday’s election his path to the speakership has become more rocky and his probability of re-election no longer guaranteed.
Mark P. Jones is the James A. Baker III Institute for Public Policy’s Fellow in Political Science as well as the Joseph D. Jamail Chair in Latin American Studies and Chair of the Department of Political Science at Rice University.