© World Economic Forum. Photo by Edgar Alberto Domínguez Cataño (CC-BY-SA). Juan Manuel Santos Calderón
Rarely is an election process as interesting as the one that is currently underway in Colombia. On Sunday, May 30, Colombians will vote for the next president. However, chances are slim that it will be determined in a first round, and will probably have to go for a second.
All the candidates are well prepared and politically well known. However, two candidates have really dominated the conversation, the surveys and the attention: Juan Manuel Santos and Antanas Mockus.
Santos, the former Minister of Defense under the current president, Alvaro Uribe Velez, is the official candidate, backed by the establishment. Santos is a long time public official, and a member of a prestigious family, owners of the only national newspaper, El Tiempo — which has, not surprisingly, backed him as their preferred candidate.
Mockus is the former two-term mayor of the city of Bogota, and the former head of the Universidad Nacional. A mathematician and philosopher, Mockus has united forces with three former mayors (two of Bogota, and one, his vice-presidential formula, of Medellin).
Courtesy of Sergio Fajardo Valderrama (CC-BY). Antanas Mockus
Their difference in style, political careers and philosophies has translated on the ground to two very distinct groups of supporters. Santos is considered the person who will continue with the current president’s policies and manner of governing; whereas Mockus, although stating that he will continue some of president’s programs, has also expressed that the manner of governing will change substantially. Mockus is not a man who plays the tit-for-tat game so common in politics. He believes in the power of argumentation. Santos, like Uribe Velez, has a more “the end justifies the means” approach.
Mockus has received increasing support through social media sites, such as Facebook, where he currently has more than 690,000 followers (and growing), and his party, Partido Verde, has more than 490,000. This support is criticized by his opponents as one that will not translate into votes – since most users of social media are young, underage people who cannot vote. This is also part of the reason that Sunday will be so interesting: will the young and first time voters come out?
May 30 might not be the final chapter in this election, but whatever the outcome the stakes will be much higher on June 20 (the second round), with the other four candidates having to decide whether to support the two main candidates and if so, which one. This could really determine not just the winner, but the support the next president will have.
Lisa Guáqueta is the project administrator for the Latin American Initiative at the Baker Institute. Her areas of research interest include the urban dynamics of Latin America, especially the role of cities and local governments in international issues. She studied economics at Universidad Externado de Colombia and holds a master’s degree in international affairs from The New School in New York. She previously blogged about the Colombian election on March 11.