Author Paul Starobin recently visited the Baker Institute to talk about his book, “After America: Narratives for the Next Global Age.“ The book’s thesis is summed up by the title: it predicts a decline in U.S. power and prestige as the century progresses. But “After America” is much more than just the latest addition to what is by now a substantial “declinist” literature. Starobin deftly sketches a number of scenarios suggesting how our national decline might play out at the global level. They range from the relatively benign, like the rise of a universal world culture, to the downright scary, such as descent into global chaos and conflict.
One can certainly disagree with some of Starobin’s points. But they are surely thought-provoking. And they are not particularly pleasant for Americans like me, who have grown up in a world where American preeminence — first within the West and then, with the collapse of the Soviet Union, in the global arena — has been a working assumption.
Pleasant or not, though, it is hard to imagine the United States maintaining its current position indefinitely. The rise of countries such as China and India will surely, over time, begin to erode our economic, military, and diplomatic dominance. No nation has a monopoly on greatness. History shows that even the most powerful of states — the Roman Empire, Napoleonic France, the British Empire — eventually go into eclipse.
It won’t happen to us tomorrow or, probably, even soon. We might, of course, see our national position plummet because of a catastrophe. Another major terrorist attack might lead us to turn sharply inward or, alternately, to launch a debilitating series of military adventures. Or an international run on the dollar might lead to its demise as the world’s premier reserve currency. More likely, though, is a relatively slow decline, as U.S. power, though still substantial, grows less dominant in a world increasingly shaped by other states.
Any decline will be hard for Americans to accept. American exceptionalism — the idea that the United States is unique among nations — is deeply engrained in our character. We are, famously, an optimistic people. And we have little sense of the tragic in our personal or collective lives. As a 52-year-old, overweight smoker, I take comfort by the thought that our national preeminence is almost certain to outlive me.
— View a webcast of Paul Starobin’s Oct. 1 talk at the Baker Institute.
Joe Barnes is the Baker Institute’s Bonner Means Baker Fellow. From 1979 to 1993, he was a career diplomat with the U.S. Department of State, serving in Europe, Africa, the Middle East and South Asia.