This autumn, Rice’s Glasscock School for Continuing Studies is featuring the work of the Baker Institute’s fellows in a course where we talk about what we do. Last spring, I taught a short course with Professor Ric Stoll and Steve Young of Sam Houston State University on contemporary national security issues (WMD, terrorists, pirates, and others), so when the Glasscock folks asked for a lecture on a national security-related topic — my choice — I chose aerial refueling.
Airborne refueling actually serves a handy metaphor for the difficulty the Pentagon still faces in moving from the Cold War mindset to the post-9/11 world. I talked at some length about the Boeing KC-135 Stratotanker, an aircraft purchased during the Eisenhower administration and still in U.S. Air Force service today. Tankers like the KC-135 are invaluable when the Defense Department needs to reach across continents in missions from humanitarian assistance to close air support.
With some examples now in service more than 50 years (the last came off the assembly line in 1965), the Air Force is keen on finding a replacement, and has been for the better part of a decade. Unfortunately, the service’s procurement officials have failed twice in the process to select a successor and begin buying it in quantity. While the Air Force chiefs fought tooth and nail to keep as many F-22 fighter aircraft in the budget as they could, the process to locate a replacement for the KC-135, labeled KC-X, has dragged on for more than a decade.
The first effort to begin replacing the ‘135 collapsed after a lease deal for a tanker variant of Boeing’s 767 airliner was determined to be more pricey than a straightforward purchase. A scandal involving the Air Force’s no. 2 purchasing official was added fallout. In the wake of the failed lease project, the Air Force’s management of a competition, which selected Airbus’s joint submission with Northrop-Grumman, also failed after Boeing appealed the decision. Now the Pentagon is left to hope that the third time is the charm.
Although the bids from Boeing Airbus/Northrop-Grumman are aiming for a $200 million unit cost, last year the Royal Air Force signed a 25-plus year lease for 13 tankers for £13 billion. A price inflation spiral on the KC-135 replacement will likely mean fewer aircraft than the 179 that the Air Force currently wants. An increasing number of U.S. allies have bought new generation tankers from Airbus (UK, Australia & Saudi Arabia) or Boeing (Japan & Italy), but the Pentagon remains unable to close the deal. No game changing technology, no great innovation. As the KC-135 was a 707 tanker, its replacement will be another jetliner with tanker hardware added.
Currently, U.S. Defense Secretary Robert Gates must struggle with a mind-boggling number of crises (Afghanistan-Pakistan, Iraq, North Korea and others), but he also most work on recapitalizing a Defense Department that needs new ships, planes and ground vehicles to replace those purchased in the 1980s or before wear out. To afford those systems, the acquisition process will need to become more flexible, transparent and straightforward. There are a number of significant challenges to overcome, but as former Defense Department procurement official David Berteau stated before Congress, the good news is that, “there is also a general feeling that it’s time to do something to fix weapons acquisition.”
Secretary Gates has done a great deal to move this process forward, but it will be incumbent upon the leadership in Washington to remain focused on this long after his final retirement from public service.