The following excerpt comes from the report “Containment Through Cooperation: A Proposal for a Nuclear Energy Agreement With Iran,” by Rice University alumnus Sam Hile.
Purpose
The United States has a strong commitment to prevent Iran from obtaining nuclear weapons, since the resulting destabilization of the Middle East would directly and adversely affect the national security and economic interests of both the U.S. and its allies in the region. The U.S. has until now favored coercive diplomacy, attempting to change Iran’s behavior by alternating between negotiations with the P5+1 and threats of increased economic sanctions. However, these efforts have not produced the desired effect, as Iran continues to enrich uranium and make progress toward acquiring a nuclear weapon. Because nuclear facility inspectors are no longer permitted in Iran, the precise amount of progress is largely unknown. For this reason, most Western analysts perceive preemptive military incursion and continuing sanctions as the only available policy options to break the deadlock. This study outlines a third solution, one of nuclear energy cooperation.
Key findings
- Iran was one of the first nations to join the Nuclear Nonproliferation Treaty (NPT). Preserving its “inalienable right” to domestic uranium enrichment as per Article IV of this treaty (albeit subject to the restraints of Articles I and II) is of utmost importance to Iran. The refusal of the P5+1 to recognize this right has defeated most negotiation attempts.
- While President Ahmadinejad and other hardliners unequivocally favor the development of nuclear weapons, reformists within Iran’s ruling elite seek only civilian nuclear energy and are amenable to limiting Iran’s weapons production capability.
- Despite sharing a common technological foundation, nuclear energy and nuclear weapons are not the same thing.
- Given its ailing energy balance, Iran’s desire to establish a nuclear power sector is legitimate and is not a front for the establishment of a parallel clandestine weapons operation.
- The U.S. maintains nuclear energy cooperation agreements (123 Agreements) with nations all around the world. These agreements have been remarkably effective at bolstering regional nonproliferation goals
and strengthening diplomacy. - Continued employment of economic sanctions and military intervention are not viable options; the first has only strengthened the hardliners’ cause within Iran, and the second’s efficacy is probably limited to the short term only. In addition, pursuing either option makes Iran’s eventual acquisition of a nuclear weapon all the more likely.
Proposed solution
This study concludes that the U.S. should work with the rest of the P5+1 group (China, France, Russia, United Kingdom and Germany) to offer Iran a comprehensive 123 Agreement that preserves its right to limited uranium enrichment for the peaceful purpose of civilian nuclear power yet imposes rigorous safeguards and monitoring mechanisms. Most important, Iran would fully comply with the IAEA Additional Protocol (AP). The agreement would additionally provide for:
- Long-term nuclear fuel supply contracts for Iran;
- Monetary assistance with the nuclear power sector;
- Training programs for Iranian nuclear scientists, including exchange programs for both Iranian and American and European students.
- The easing of visa and other restrictions that unnecessarily impede the development of the Iranian scientific establishment; and
- The gradual lifting of economic sanctions contingent upon full Iranian compliance with IAEA demands.
While there are some risks inherent in this commitment (most seriously, the existence of a parallel clandestine nuclear weapons program), this study will outline some feasible and promising mitigation strategies.
This study envisions many beneficial outcomes from the proposal. The predicted results of this agreement are:
- Complete awareness of all of Iran’s nuclear activities;
- Elimination of whatever nuclear weapons program Iran currently has;
- Resolution of a longstanding international security crisis and improved Iranian-American relations.
Download the full report “Containment Through Cooperation: A Proposal for a Nuclear Energy Agreement With Iran” on the Baker Institute website.