Today, the Green Party of Texas will submit its ballot access petition to the Texas secretary of state. This is potentially bad news for Bill White and the Texas Democratic Party in two respects.
Most immediately, it signifies that White (along with Republican Rick Perry and a Libertarian Party candidate who will be selected in June) will be joined on the November ballot by a Green Party gubernatorial candidate. The Green candidate, who will be selected at the party’s June convention (Houstonian Deb Shafto is the odds on favorite), will draw much of his or her support from the same group of voters as White, and will undoubtedly reduce White’s overall share of the vote, something that could affect the outcome of the election in the event of a close race.
In addition, if White is unsuccessful this fall, Green ballot access this year could complicate his 2012 U.S. Senate bid. The Greens will automatically receive ballot access for 2012 if they get on the 2010 ballot and win at least 5 percent of the vote in a statewide race. The party is virtually certain to meet this requirement via the candidacy of Edward Lindsay for the post of state comptroller, where the Democratic Party failed to nominate a candidate to compete with Republican incumbent Susan Combs — the person responsible for April’s appliance rebate fiasco. A Libertarian also is running for comptroller.
White is faced with the dilemma of whether or not — most likely via surrogates — to challenge the signatures on the Green Party’s petition with the goal of keeping the party off the ballot in the fall. The secretary of state may, but is not required to, verify the signatures on its own accord.
For its 18 candidates (who filed in January) to be on the ballot in November, the Green Party needs a number of valid petition signatures and March precinct convention participants equal to at least 43,992 (1 percent of the vote in the 2006 gubernatorial election).The Green Party will likely submit roughly 50,000 signatures today. But it is quite possible that more than a few of those signatures are invalid because the individual voted in the Democratic or Republican primary elections in March and/or April (17 percent of registered voters participated in these primaries), is not registered to vote, provided incorrect or incomplete information on the petition, or signed another party’s ballot access petition prior to signing the Green Party’s petition. All of this, along with potential difficulties resulting from the manner in which the signatures were collected, leaves the Green Party potentially vulnerable to a legal challenge.
A successful challenge (which must be filed this week) would not only be beneficial for Bill White in his race for governor, but also for other Democrats who are in competitive races for which a Green Party candidate has filed, and where the presence or absence of this candidate could signify the difference between defeat and victory. Prime examples include U.S. Rep. Ciro Rodriguez (D-San Antonio) who is facing a strong challenge from Republican Francisco “Quico” Canseco in Congressional District 23, and Democrat Rick Molina, who is running against incumbent Ken Legler (R-Pasadena) in Texas House District 144. However, White and the Texas Democratic Party will have to weigh the potential benefits that would be obtained from challenging the Green Party petition against the potential costs of being seen as actively conspiring to keep a progressive political party off of the ballot — thereby denying Texas voters the option provided by the Green Party when they go to polls in November.
Mark P. Jones is a Baker Institute Rice scholar and professor and chair of the Department of Political Science at Rice University.