Joaquín Guzmán Loera, the drug kingpin also known as El Chapo, in a photo released by the Mexican attorney general. Credit: Office of the Mexican Attorney General
Over the coming weeks, there will be much talk about the Jan. 8 recapture of Mexican drug kingpin “El Chapo” Guzmán — his third arrest and imprisonment in 13 years. A key question will be what his arrest means for the administration of President Enrique Peña Nieto — particularly after Guzmán was allowed to escape from prison on July 11, 2015, only 16 months after his previous recapture. The prison break was an international embarrassment for the Peña administration and, to many critics, proof of the government’s corruption and inability to keep a criminal behind bars.
The impact of Guzman’s arrest on the Mexican government must be viewed from two time horizons. The immediate impact is quite positive: The government demonstrated its commitment to reverse the initial embarrassment of Guzmán’s brazen escape through a sustained operation to find and arrest him. Guzmán’s recapture also shows it is possible to get to the highest capos, no matter who they are or where they go. And it shows that the Mexican government continues to cooperate with U.S. law enforcement and intelligence agencies in the fight against drug trafficking organizations. Guzmán’s recapture is a positive mark on the Peña administration’s score sheet, and there’s no doubt the government will try to squeeze as much political capital as possible out of Friday’s arrest in the coastal city of Los Mochis, in Sinaloa state.
The future impact of Guzmán’s arrest, however, is much more complex. The Peña administration will have to show that the recapture of El Chapo is a meaningful step toward disabling the Sinaloa cartel, Guzmán’s powerful drug-trafficking organization. However, it is more than likely that the transnational criminal organization will continue operations as usual — as was the case during his previous incarceration. The Mexican government will also have to decide whether to extradite Guzmán to the United States. This may be a wise move, especially if it is done quickly to avoid the risk of another escape attempt. Still, Guzmán knows many secrets about the layers of corruption within Mexico’s police forces and even the political class. What El Chapo Guzmán may tell U.S. authorities under a plea bargain could be very damning to many in Mexico. Extradition may also mean that Mexico has essentially declared, albeit indirectly, that it is incapable of keeping Guzmán behind bars — giving up on any appearance of competence.
Moreover, the recapture of Guzmán will do little to change the dynamics of drug trafficking in Mexico. It is very likely that Guzman was not in direct control of the Sinaloa cartel during his last two years in prison. His lieutenants have had control of various territorial corridors and operations; Guzmán is probably a dispensable capo by now. While this does not detract from the Peña administration’s score sheet, it is undeniable that the Sinaloa cartel has been resilient in the face of shifting U.S. drug markets and the previous administration’s efforts to battle drug cartels. The organization has even expanded its operations to at least 10 countries.
Without minimizing the accomplishments of the Mexican marines and the federal police, who were directly responsible for Guzmán’s recapture after an intense and bloody raid, Mexicans today are more preoccupied by what they perceive as a precarious economic situation. The peso-dollar parity has reached 18 to 1; wages are stagnant; economic growth is weak; and low oil prices continue to put pressure on federal and state budgets, with cuts all around in social services, education and infrastructure. In addition, the month of January has brought the usual start-of-the-year price hikes, and there is much nervousness about the uncertainty of a difficult electoral year ahead: 13 out of 32 states will elect new governors. In light of this, the recapture of El Chapo Guzmán is likely to fade quickly from the news as economic difficulties again dominate the headlines.
In the end, Mexicans will, like Americans and any other electorate, hold their leaders accountable for the country’s economic performance and the impact on their wallets — as well as for the public’s safety and security.
The Peña administration, however, will try to keep the key victory of Guzmán’s recapture in the headlines for as long as possible. Only time will tell how successful they will be.
Tony Payan is the Françoise and Edward Djerejian Fellow for Mexico Studies and director of the Baker Institute Mexico Center.