Much attention has focused on the pandemic’s impacts on energy demand and CO2 emissions; the impacts on global energy supply and trade are less well-understood but equally profound. Global energy supply saw the biggest drop on record, led (among countries) by the US (and among energy types) by oil. Trade in every fossil fuel fell even more sharply than supply amid the global disruption. Continue Reading
Today’s oil market contains not one, but two prisoner’s dilemmas: traditional OPEC+ policed by Saudi Arabia, and a new one with US shale producers, policed by their investors. This boosts the prize for cooperative behavior but also raises new risks. Continue Reading
Today, electricity is the new oil when it comes to energy security. The immediacy of power outages and the ubiquity of critical elements of modern life powered by electricity mean the impact of oil supply disruptions are a walk in the park compared with our power vulnerabilities. Moreover, our dependence on electricity and our vulnerability to disruptions are rising. It is critical that we recognize that our national security – and a successful climate policy – both depend on building a more a robust and resilient power system. Continue Reading
U.S. oil refiners have had a great run in recent years. World-class technical sophistication has combined with the shale boom (and an inadvertent assist from policy) to drive a dramatic shift in the competitiveness of U.S. refiners, moving the U.S. from a large net importer of refined products to now being one the largest net exporters. But market events in 2020 signal changes to come that will challenge the industry’s global competitiveness. Continue Reading
As prices of gas in Europe and Asia dropped precipitously due to the pandemic’s outbreak, there has been a notable exception: in the U.S., prices remained relatively steady and even rose at times. Continue Reading
Investors are increasingly worried about the sustainability of the big oil company business model. So am I! Do you know what would really help? Mowing the lawn… Continue Reading
It’s been a rough year for US shale producers. Prices collapsed, investment collapsed, the rig count collapsed, jobs collapsed. And production collapsed. Things are looking up now, though recovery will not be as swift as in the last big price collapse in 2015. Continue Reading